Plekhanov Sergei Vyacheslavovich biography. Plekhanov, Sergey Vyacheslavovich - Investment process in the field of infrastructure: problems of state regulation in the context of globalization: monograph. Comparative analysis of the main parameters of the external debt of Russia and others with

Are you here: Service sector

Abstract of the dissertation on this topic ""

As a manuscript

PLEKHANOV. SERGEY VYACHESLAVOVYCH;

EXTERNAL BORROWING IN THE SYSTEM OF SOCIAL REPRODUCTION

Candidate of Economic Sciences

As a manuscript

PLEKHANOV SERGEY VYACHESLAVOVYCH

EXTERNAL BORROWING IN THE SYSTEM OF SOCIAL REPRODUCTION

Specialty 08.00.01 - Economic Theory

The dissertation work was completed at the Department of Economic Theory of Moscow State Social University.

Scientific supervisors - Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor

Larionov Igor Konstantinovich

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor Mikhail Sergeevich Kuznetsov

Official opponents: Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor

Kochetkov Alexander Alekseevich

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor Lokhmachev Valery Fedorovich

Lead organization:

Academy of Labor and Social Relations

The defense of the dissertation will take place on June 30, 2003 at 14:00 at a meeting of the dissertation council D 224.002.03 in economic sciences at the Moscow State Social University at the address: 129256, Moscow, st. Wilhelm Pieck, 4, building 2., dissertation hall.

The dissertation can be found in the scientific library of the Moscow State Social University (107150 Moscow, Losinoostrovskaya str. 24)

Scientific Secretary of the Dissertation Council Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor

Relevance of the research topic: There is not a single state in the world that, at one time or another in its history, has not faced the problem of growing external debt. Almost all countries attract external borrowed resources and have external outstanding debts; most of them are net borrowers, including among developed countries.

The world economy is a single, interconnected system, which includes external debt as an essential element of its functioning mechanism. The dependence of national economic structures on external borrowing has increased in the context of increasing liberalization and globalization of financial markets. In many countries, a debt-based economic system has developed, which is deficient in domestic investments and current payments, systematically replenishing the lack of national resources by attracting foreign investments. The global economy as a whole has become largely debt-intensive in nature. Today, such highly developed countries as the USA, Japan, Canada, Germany, and Great Britain have significant public debt. Moreover, its main part is the debt that arose in the last two to three decades and is associated with the implementation of a long-term, deficit budget policy. The global debt on external borrowings of developing countries, including countries with economies in transition, as well as developed countries in the volume of their international debt securities and announced syndicated loans for 1994-1999 exceeded 6 trillion US dollars1.

Servicing external debt still remains a big problem for Russia. So, in 2003 and 2004. to repay the external debt, the country must pay 19.72 and 14.56 billion dollars. A significant part of these payments are interest payments, amounting to 40.46 and 50.82% of the given amounts, respectively2. The existing volume of debt burden that Russia is forced to bear in the context of a reformed economy,

1 "World Economic Outlook", International Monetary Fund, October 1999, p.206

2 According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (Expert No. 40 2002 p. 41)

requiring significant investments in industry and the financial sector, significantly reduces the state’s ability to effectively restructure it.

The degree of development of the problem. Despite significant

achievements in macroeconomic research of problems of external and

internal public debt, the questions of determining the boundaries of external debt, the conditions of external equilibrium when importing loan capital and the growth of external debt, taking into account Russian realities, remain open. More attention is required to the economic, institutional-legal and cultural-psychological aspects of external borrowing and debt in their complex and interrelationship, which, in the opinion of the applicant, should be included in the range of the main problems of studying external debt at the present stage. In modern studies of external government borrowing and debt of Russia, it is often Only certain aspects of the problem are considered. The economic side of the issue is analyzed mainly in two planes: the budget deficit and the balance of payments deficit. Therefore, a systematic approach to the issue of external debt remains a serious problem. Recently, discussions in Russia have not subsided regarding further ways to transform the domestic economy and the role that external borrowing should play in this regard. At the same time, the central question is: can and should the government, in conditions of systemic transformation, use external borrowing? The answer to this question involves studying the modern theory of external borrowing and their influence on the development of a sovereign state in the context of the search for optimal models of socio-economic development of Russia. Issues of the theory of public debt are reflected in the works of such foreign economists as Jeffrey Sachs, Robert Barro, Michael Bailey, John Levinson, Clark Bunch and others. A number of domestic publications are devoted to the problems of settling the Russian external debt: Sarkisyan A., Sukhovtseva O., Yasin E., Vavilova A., Illarionova A., Trofimova S., Shokhin A., Golovacheva D., Fedyakina L., and a number of others authors.

At present, there is no comprehensive presentation of the theory of external borrowing; the economic content of the category “external borrowing” is interpreted ambiguously; in the works of scientists, predominantly financial and technical analysis of the problems of public debt prevails; The issues of the impact of external borrowing on the economy and the features of their regulation in the transition period are not sufficiently covered.

The answers to these questions from various representatives of world economic thought were ambiguous and often contradictory

The two most important systems of the pre-classical period in economics

theories - mercantilism and physiocracy - took diametrically opposed opinions in relation to issues of economic policy and the structure of financing the state budget: mercantilistic interventionism was opposed by a physiocratic approach to the problem. Like the physiocrats, the reaction of representatives of classical political economy to the theory and practice of the mercantilist state (in which credit financing of public expenditures was not only fully present, but was also proclaimed as one of the most important sources of budget revenue and an instrument contributing to the wealth and prosperity of the nation) was sharply negative. According to classical theories, fiscal policy and external borrowing were supposed to play exclusively the role of financial and in no case regulatory instruments.

The Keynesian Revolution brought many new aspects to the discussion of government debt. Thanks to the “functional” consideration, the state received the right not only monetary, but also through other anti-cyclical measures to smooth out market fluctuations, to actually intervene in the structure

1 Golovachev D.L. State lodge. Theory, Russian and world practice: CheRo. -1998

social process of production and distribution. The resulting public debt is one of the consequences of the state stabilization policy. Keynesian economic theory rejected the dogma of a balanced budget, legalizing budget deficits to stimulate the economy, and external borrowing became an integral part of the opportunistic aspect of government economic policy.

With the advent of the monetarist doctrine and the theory of “supply-side economics,” the problem of external borrowing and public debt becomes one of the most controversial in the debate between monetarists and Keynesians (neo-Keynesians). Considering the reduction of government spending as one of the most important levers of influence on economic processes, “supply-side economics” opposes the use of external borrowing as an instrument of stabilization policy. The concepts of budget balancing developed in economic theory (a budget balanced on an annual basis has become the exception rather than the rule) and the opportunistic influence of credit financing of government expenditures can be divided into four main trends: the theory of an annually balanced budget, the theory of cyclical budget balancing, and the theory of automatically stabilizing economic policies. , the theory of compensating budget.

The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of external borrowing on the economic development of a sovereign state, to identify alternative options for repaying external debt, to develop a model for the use of external borrowing and repaying existing external debt in relation to Russia.

The purpose of the study is specified in the following tasks:

The subject of the study is the influence of external debt on the process of social reproduction and its optimization within its framework.

Based on an analysis of the place of Russia’s external debt in the system of global external debt and an assessment of its economic

The main results of the dissertation research obtained

personally by the applicant and submitted for defense:

A detailed definition of external borrowing is given as an economic category, not only located at the intersection of the domestic economy of the country and the world economy, but also having a dual basis, acting simultaneously as an essential element of the process of social reproduction within the country, and an essential element of reproduction on a global scale farms;

The patterns of interaction between the state’s external debt and the process of social reproduction are formulated and substantiated;

The classification of countries receiving external borrowing for the purpose of restructuring their debt has been clarified, taking into account a set of factors, including the level of external debt to GDP, the level of country income, the level of economic potential and the degree of its use, as well as the ratio of external debt to state budget expenditures;

The nature of the relationship between the state’s external debt, its income and expenses is revealed, with the construction of models of this relationship;

Formulas for calculating the optimal and maximum permissible external debt of a country are proposed;

A model has been developed for optimizing economic relations regarding external borrowing of funds by the Russian state - servicing and repaying public debt;

Proposals for service optimization have been put forward and justified

Russia's external debt.

Empirical basis of the study. The work used data from the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, sources of the International Monetary Fund, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, United Nations commissions, analytical developments of the largest international banks - Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, Chase Manhattan, open materials of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Central Bank, as well as various international and university conferences on problems of economic development of Russia.

The practical significance of the dissertation work lies in

possibilities of its use:

government authorities in the process of developing a strategy

regulation of external borrowings and its legislative implementation;

Russian banks and exchanges, financial funds in the process

analysis and forecasting of the dynamics and nature of external borrowings;

higher educational institutions in teaching economic theory, as well as a number of financial and credit disciplines;

specialists engaged in research in the field of theory and practice of external debt.

Testing and implementation. Main results of the dissertation

legislative framework of the Russian Federation.

2. Main content of the work In the introduction, the relevance and importance of the topic under study is substantiated,

the need for its scientific development, the goal and main objectives are formulated

research, reflects the scientific novelty and practical significance of the work.

In the first chapter - “Character and theoretical and methodological

problems in the process of external borrowing of funds

states" - theoretical problems and

provisions of the process of external borrowing of funds from the state.

Based on the study of publications and systemic analysis of economic

relations the following definition is formulated:

External economic borrowing by the state is a special economic category that reflects the process of obtaining loans by a sovereign state from abroad at all levels of management (from the state as a whole to a region or an individual enterprise), providing such loans, servicing and repaying them. External economic borrowing by the state, depending on its relative size to the economic potential of the country and its GDP, plays a significant role in the process of social reproduction within the country. The positive or negative role of external borrowing depends on the optimality of its volume and on the direction and efficiency of the use of funds raised by borrowing funds from abroad.

As is known, the borrower of external loans can be both the central government itself in the state, and individual public and private structures in the sectoral and territorial context, including individual firms (enterprises), for borrowing by the state, highlighting within its framework

public and private structures. In political terms, the sovereignty of the state extends to all private structures on its territory. In economic terms, its potential and development are determined by the entire set of economic units on its territory, including private ones.

External borrowing of funds is not only directly interconnected with social reproduction, but also its specific content with economic relations, the nature of the impact on economic growth and living standards of the population, its current development - all this taken together is ultimately and primarily determined by the dynamics, pace and proportions of social reproduction, moreover, in combination with the degree of optimality of both the amount of external borrowing and the use of funds received through its channel.

With all this, external borrowing appears in the form of a certain cycle: 1) external borrowing of funds by the state; 2) use of borrowed funds; 3) servicing external debt; 4) debt repayment.

This cycle is somewhat modified when the borrower of funds abroad is not a government agency, but a business entity that can resort to external loans either with or without a state guarantee.

The model is based on the action of objective laws that

first formulated by the applicant as follows.

Regularity 2. The need for external borrowing, its optimal maximum permissible limits in time dynamics, the possibility of servicing and repaying external debt, the trend of its development, the efficiency of using borrowed funds in the economic aspect are determined by social reproduction, its proportions and rates.

1. The gigantic growth of external debt on the scale of the world economy was the objective factor that, in addition to subjective motives, forced creditor countries, together with

Table 1

EXTERNAL DEBT GROWTH INDICES1

Country Years

1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000

Spain 155.6 941.2 750.0

France 133.5 636.9 590.0

Germany 249.8 610.0 580.0

China 238.6 498.1 500.0

Iran 110.1 316.5 310.0

Russia 159.0 296.1 310.0

USA 161.3 269.3 280.0

Poland 128.2 139.9 150.0

Brazil 112.2 132.5 145.0

Mexico 104.9 123.7 130.0

World average index 139.9 202.1 250.0

"Source: calculations based on World Debt Tables. The World Bank. Washington. 1987-1997 and International Financial Statistics. IMF. 1987-2000.

Model of the relationship between external borrowing and government revenues and expenditures

Model for optimizing economic relations regarding external borrowing of funds by Russia

Borrowing funds from the IMF

Borrowing funds from

expedient

Connecting the country to the free flow of capital = conquest of the country from within by the masters of world capital, i.e. global financial oligarchy

Increasing public debt

Full course

repayment of the state’s external debt at an optimal pace

Optimization of the total external debt of enterprises and organizations

Ways to ensure foreign exchange earnings in the country

Development of knowledge-intensive corporations entering the world market with government support

Mutually beneficial foreign trade

Directing investments abroad in the form of construction of economic facilities (power plants, industrial enterprises, etc.)

Attracting foreign investment in the real sector of the economy on the basis of mutual economic benefit without political and economic conditions in the implementation of a certain strategy and tactics

Mutual exchange of know-how on a mutually beneficial basis

Foreign loans should be taken out by enterprises and corporations, in some cases under guarantees

controlled organizations to form a system of external borrowing of funds by states, which includes both the procedure for providing loans and their restructuring or write-off.

e) especially rapid adoption of emergency measures in situations where the external debt crisis of individual countries posed a real threat of spreading in the form of a chain reaction to the entire system of global external debt, and through this threatened the stability of the world monetary, credit and financial system.

4. With regard to the restructuring and write-off of part of the external debt in the SVZ, as a result of step-by-step agreements between creditor countries over many years, various schemes were developed, the use of which was agreed upon in advance depending on the combination of certain economic indicators in some countries, differentiated by groups of GDP per capita population.

5. In the practice of providing new loans, restructuring external debt and reducing part of the debt, as a rule, political motives among leading creditor countries prevail over narrow ones

economic interests related directly to external debt; in strategic terms, political motives ensure the implementation of long-term economic interests of the United States and other G7 countries.

criteria of economic profitability and focusing on the recommendations of the Banking Advisory Committee (BAC), formed by club members; unlike the Paris Club, the London Club, as a rule, does not revise either the principal amount of the debt or interest payments, restructuring the debt by providing the country with a new loan; however, the debtor country is often not required to enter into an agreement with the IMF on standby loans.

writing off part of debt obligations.

1. By themselves, all of the above schemes can serve, depending on the specific circumstances of their application, as multidirectional

economic interests:

a) mutually beneficial interests of creditors and debtors;

b) unilateral benefit of creditors;

c) the primary benefit of the debtors.

4. Write-off of debt obligations, which in itself is beneficial to the debtor and leads to the loss of previously loaned funds, is accompanied by large economic losses in strategic terms for the debtor country in all cases where the condition for writing off debts is the implementation of an economic policy that is objectively consistent with political and economic interests of creditor countries and conflicting national-state, including economic, interests of debtor countries.

Extreme approaches are present in both of the above directions. In one of them, government spending is reduced to the bare minimum, financing investments and the social sphere (the latter

In the second chapter of the dissertation - “External borrowings of funds by the state in connection with its choice of social-

economic development” - the nature of external borrowing of funds by the state in connection with its choice of strategy for socio-economic development is systematically studied. At the same time, special attention is paid to the relationship between external borrowing and the income and expenses of the borrower state. The applicant built a model of this relationship (see diagram 1.).

Attempts in the system of government to significantly limit the tendency of an uncontrolled increase in external debt throughout the 20th century in countries around the world were made in two directions. One of them legally establishes the acceptable ratio between income and loans. An extreme expression of this approach is for legislators to establish a completely balanced budget and prohibit the government from borrowing at all. Another approach identifies the relationship between government borrowing and total government investment in a country over a given time period. Both approaches, in principle, have the same goal: to finance government spending, ultimately from government revenues. This is possible in two directions - reducing government expenditures and increasing its revenues. With some exceptions) is the responsibility of the private sector of the economy.

In another approach, the entire economy is actually nationalized, and the entire national product actually acts as state income, which is distributed by it at its own discretion. None of these extremes (except for the nationalization of the economy during times of war, devastation, etc.) has ever led or could lead to the successful economic development of the country. Only a balanced, balanced approach that combines the self-activity of the market with the reasonable influence of the state on the development of the country’s economy

Public debt management in a broad sense refers to

interests related to the transfer of national wealth of other countries to their own benefit. At the same time, the increasing globalization of the world economy leads to the consolidation in legislative form, especially at the level of international law, of the liberalization of financial flows throughout the world, including those related to external borrowing. However, such liberalization means an increasing liberation of financial flows, especially credit flows, from control by sovereign states, but in no way liberation from control by the global financial oligarchy, which uses this control for its own selfish interests. At the same time, control over financial, especially credit, flows in the foreign economic sphere is increasing on the part of international organizations (WTO, IMF, World Bank), and in them, as is known, the role of actual masters is played by the USA, Great Britain and other leading Western countries, and states in these countries are under the control of the global financial oligarchy.

The paper examines the use of external borrowing in a model of a regulated market economy and in the implementation of an economic strategy focused on national-state interests. At the same time, the role of the strategic factor in the system of external borrowings is highlighted and analyzed, its influence on their political coloring is determined. Only as an exception, individual countries comply with the UN decision to annually allocate 1% of their GDP to poor countries (in recent years this applies to Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, as well as Canada)1 can lead to its prosperity.

1 Sarkisyants A. System of international debts. M.: DeKa. - 1999

formation of the state strategy in the field of borrowing funds. Public debt management in the narrow sense is the management of specific activities in the field of borrowing funds by the state and balancing the public debt.

In relation to a regulated market economy operating in the interests of the national state, the details of the model characterizing the relationship of external borrowing with state income and expenses have been clarified (see diagram 1.). In particular, it has been established that an excessive increase in borrowing causes an increase in the interest rate on the loan, and this, in turn, has a depressive effect on the economy, as a result, economic growth slows down, which makes it difficult to service and repay debt.

Through external borrowing, countries that lack capital for development can borrow from capital-rich countries where market interest rates are lower. The formation of the global capital market has made it possible to increase the interest paid by creditors in capital-rich countries and to reduce the level of interest paid by debtors in capital-deficient countries. This situation, abstracting from other factors, subject to certain conditions, makes it possible to improve the economic situation in both creditor and borrower countries, increasing the scale of capital formation and increasing the limit of optimal borrowing in capital-deficient countries. In the process of external borrowing, resorting to it the country must maintain certain proportions both in the production process itself at the macro level and in the formation of the corresponding income. Particularly important is the optimal relationship between production volumes and personal consumption, savings and investments. Exports and imports respectively increase and decrease the resources consumed by the country for a given period of time, and external borrowings carry forward to the future that deduction from national consumption with interest, which corresponds to its

increase at a given time due to imports. For successful economic development, it is necessary that the magnitude of the additional return resulting from additional investment exceeds the corresponding deduction from national consumption.

The key point in optimizing external debt for the long term is economic growth, and it depends on the volume of investment. Attempts to quickly repay external debt by reducing investment can undermine economic growth, which ultimately will only exacerbate the problem of external debt.

Ultimately, optimization of external debt is based on three fundamental prerequisites: 1) high and sustainable economic growth; 2) a fairly high rate of investment; 3) high efficiency of investment objects. For effective external debt management

it is necessary to accurately determine the time frame of obligations for its

repayment in the context of projected export earnings as well as tax

revenues, while simultaneously using various types of favorable opportunities for debt restructuring.

The third chapter of the dissertation, “Problems of external borrowing by the Russian Federation,” identifies the need for the state to implement a systematic approach to external borrowing, defining policies regarding it as an integral part of the country’s socio-economic development strategy.

In addition to international financial institutions (IMF, World and European Banks) providing related loans (with the exception of rehabilitation and sector loans - approximately half of the loan portfolio). Russia deals with three groups of loans: official creditors, mainly members of the Paris Club; commercial banks - members of the London Club; other commercial banks and firms. Analysis of the size of Russia’s external debt in comparison with its economic

potential allows us to conclude that it is quite capable of not only servicing it independently, but also repaying it in full, however, in the case of an effective economic policy, including in the field of external borrowing.

Gold and foreign exchange reserves, including as a percentage of GDP and external debt. The dissertation examines the features of external debt and its servicing during the period of radical reform of the Russian economy. Based on an analysis of this debt and its servicing, a forecast assessment of the development of the situation with external debt in Russia in the coming years is given. Even in the case of the most unfavorable scenario, the Russian Federation in terms of net debt payments in no way falls into a situation of external debt crisis, despite the fact that since 2003 the relative burden of Russian debt payments has been heavier compared to previous years. Regarding the parameters of the balance of payments, the volume of GDP, the main financial indicators, Russian payments on external debt both in the previous period and in the coming years, despite

their noticeable increase is fully consistent with established international standards and does not threaten the economic security of the country.

Based on the study of external debt, the applicant developed a model for optimizing external borrowing by Russia (see Diagram 2).

Minimizing the total costs of servicing external debt;

Maximum reduction in the nominal value of debt

Acceleration of economic growth.

The implementation of the traditional (classical) strategy for managing external debt in relation to Russia should be expressed in the following:

Refusal to revise the current payment schedule and make them in accordance with it;

Equality of net payments on debt to full payments;

1 Russian statistical yearbook, M.: Goskomstat, 2002, pp. 36-38

Determination of payments on external debt from state budget revenues;

Using convertible currency as a means of payment

In conclusion, the main provisions of the dissertation, its conclusions and recommendations are formulated.

Publications. The main provisions of the dissertation are presented in

1. Plekhanov S.V. “The influence of financial and industrial groups on the economic development of countries with transition economies.” M.: Financial Academy under the Government of the Russian Federation, 2002, 0.4 pp.

2. Plekhanov S.B. “The influence of external borrowings on the economic condition of Russia.” Postgraduate collection No. 9 MUPC, M.: Publishing house "MUPC", 2001 0.8 pp.

3. Plekhanov S.B. “Options for restructuring public debt and their features.” Round table “Noosphere”: collection of reports, M.: Publishing house “Noosphere”, 2003. 0.5 p.p.

PLEKHANOV SERGEY VYACHESLAVOVYCH

EXTERNAL BORROWING IN THE SYSTEM OF SOCIAL REPRODUCTION

Publisher No. 078345. dated 03/215/98, signed for publication on 04/01/2003. Paper format 60x84 "/^.. Times New Roman typeface. Volume 1.2 pp.

Circulation 100 copies. Order No. 2651._

Publishing house "NOOSPHERE" 101114, Moscow, st. Tverskaya, 18

Publishing and printing complex UTs LLC "DIAMEH 2000" 109052, Moscow, st. Lifting, 14

RNB Russian Fund

Dissertation: contents author of the dissertation research: candidate of economic sciences, Plekhanov, Sergey Vyacheslavovich

INTRODUCTION

Chapter 1. The nature and theoretical and methodological problems of the process of external borrowing of funds by the state.

1.1. The economic essence of the mechanism for external borrowing of funds by the state.

1.2. The process of evolution of external borrowing of funds by the state.

1.3. Alternative options for lending funds and their features.

Chapter 2. External borrowings of funds by the state in connection with its choice of socio-economic development strategy.

2.1. The relationship between external borrowing and income and expenses of the borrowing state.

2.2. External borrowing in the context of complete liberalization of the economic development strategy, determined under the pressure of the world market, creditor countries and international organizations.

2.3. The use of external borrowing in a model of a regulated market economy and in the implementation of an economic strategy focused on national and state interests.

Chapter 3. Problems of external borrowing by the Russian Federation.

3.1. The state of the external debt of the Russian Federation.

3.2. Comparative analysis of the main parameters of the external debt of Russia and other countries.

3.3. Features of external debt and its servicing during the period of radical economic reforms.

3.4. Ways and methods of optimizing external debt, its servicing and repayment.

Dissertation: introduction in economics, on the topic "External borrowing in the system of social reproduction"

Relevance of the topic: There is not a single state in the world that, at one time or another in its history, has not faced the problem of growing external debt. Almost all countries attract external borrowed resources and have external outstanding debts; most of them are net borrowers, including among developed countries.

The world economy is a single, interconnected system which includes external debt as an essential element of its functioning mechanism. The dependence of national economic structures on external borrowing has increased in the context of increasing liberalization and globalization of financial markets. In many countries, a debt-based economic system has developed, which is deficient in domestic investments and current payments, systematically replenishing the lack of national resources by attracting foreign investments. The global economy as a whole has become largely debt-intensive in nature. Today, such highly developed countries as the USA, Japan, Canada, Germany, and Great Britain have significant public debt. Moreover, its main part is the debt that arose in the last two to three decades and is associated with the implementation of a long-term, deficit budget policy. The global debt on external borrowings of developing countries, including countries with economies in transition, as well as developed countries in the volume of their international debt securities and announced syndicated loans for 1994-1999 exceeded 6 trillion US dollars1.

Servicing external debt still remains a big problem for Russia. So, in 2003 and 2004. to repay the external debt, the country must pay 19.72 and 14.56 billion dollars. A significant part of these payments are interest payments, amounting to 40.46 and 50.82% of the given amounts, respectively1. The existing volume of debt burden that Russia is forced to bear in the conditions of a reformed economy, which requires significant investments in industry and the financial sector, significantly reduces the state’s ability to effectively restructure it.

In addition, in the context of Russia’s growing participation in the international division of labor and the efforts of its economy to interact with the world market, when the country’s main creditors are its closest trading partners, external debt actually becomes a pressure factor, forcing the country to make decisions that are sometimes unfavorable for itself in the foreign economic sphere. At the moment, solving the problem of external debt and building a new strategy for attracting and using loan capital that meets national interests and takes into account the general patterns of international capital flows largely determines the prospects for the development of the Russian economy.

A systematic study of external borrowing in the broad context of Russia’s socio-economic, moral, political problems, and the identification of effective ways to reduce the debt burden are becoming one of the most pressing theoretical and practical problems for the Russian economy.

The possibility of effective use of external borrowing depends on many factors, among which the first place is the state policy of the recipient country to stimulate and regulate capital inflows, including economically justified restrictive measures that take into account the state of the country’s economy and the specifics of its individual industries.

The degree of development of the problem;

Despite significant achievements in the macroeconomic study of the problems of external and internal public debt, the issues of determining the boundaries of external debt, the conditions of external equilibrium when importing loan capital and the growth of external debt, taking into account Russian realities, remain open. More attention is required to the economic, institutional-legal and cultural-psychological aspects of external borrowing and debt in their complex and interrelationship, which, in the opinion of the applicant, should be included in the range of the main problems of studying external debt at the present stage.

In modern studies of external government borrowing and debt in Russia, only certain aspects of the problem are often considered. The economic side of the issue is analyzed mainly in two planes: the budget deficit and the balance of payments deficit. Therefore, a systematic approach to the issue of external debt remains a serious problem.

Recently, discussions have been ongoing in Russia regarding further ways to transform the domestic economy and the role that external borrowing should play in this regard. At the same time, the central question is: can and should the government, in conditions of systemic transformation, use external borrowing? The answer to this question involves studying the modern theory of external borrowing and their influence on the development of a sovereign state in the context of the search for optimal models of socio-economic development of Russia.

Issues of the theory of public debt are reflected in the works of such foreign economists as Jeffrey Sachs, Robert Barro, Michael Bailey, John Levinson, Clark Bunch and others. Settlement problems

A number of domestic publications are also devoted to Russian external debt: Sarkisyan A., Sukhovtseva O., Yasin E., Vavilova A., Illarionova A., Trofimova S., Shokhin A., Golovacheva D., Fedyakina D., and a number of other authors.

Despite the fact that a significant number of monographs and articles by foreign and domestic authors have been published on the issue of external debt, the problem of public debt and external borrowing still remains insufficiently developed. In the economic literature, there is still no comprehensive presentation of the theory of external borrowing; the economic content of the category “external borrowing” is interpreted ambiguously; in the works of scientists, predominantly financial and technical analysis of the problems of public debt prevails; The issues of the impact of external borrowing on the economy and the features of their regulation in the transition period are not sufficiently covered.

The formation of the theory of external borrowing is closely related to the theoretical development of questions about the need for state intervention in economic processes and bears the imprint of certain historical eras. In the process of the origin, creation and development of various concepts of credit financing of the needs of the state, four questions were fundamental, the answers to which determined the features of a particular theory:

Firstly, what functions and tasks can and should be undertaken by the state in the socio-economic sphere;

Secondly, to what extent government spending contributes to the development and efficiency of the national economy;

Thirdly, how should the state finance its activities, i.e. when public expenditures can be covered by borrowing on the financial markets or by loans from the issuing bank, and when exclusively taxes, as well as other fees and duties at the disposal of the state or money emission, must be used for this purpose;

Fourthly, what are the consequences for the economy and society as a whole of the debt arising from credit financing of government expenses?

The answers to these questions from various representatives of world economic thought were ambiguous and often contradictory.

The two most important systems of the pre-classical period in economic theory - mercantilism and physiocracy - took diametrically opposed opinions in relation to issues of economic policy and the structure of financing the state budget: mercantilistic interventionism was opposed by a physiocratic approach to the problem. Like the physiocrats, the reaction of representatives of classical political economy to the theory and practice of the mercantilist state (in which credit financing of public expenditures was not only fully present, but was also proclaimed as one of the most important sources of budget revenue and an instrument contributing to the wealth and prosperity of the nation) was sharply negative. According to classical theories, fiscal policy and external borrowing were supposed to play exclusively the role of financial and in no case regulatory instruments.

The Keynesian Revolution brought many new aspects to the discussion of public debt problems. Thanks to the “functional” consideration, the state received the right not only monetary, but also through other anti-cyclical measures to smooth out market fluctuations, to actually intervene in the structure of the social process of production and distribution. The resulting public debt is one of the consequences of the state stabilization policy. Keynesian economic theory rejected the dogma of a balanced budget, legalizing budget deficits to stimulate the economy, and external borrowing became an integral part of the opportunistic aspect of government economic policy.

With the advent of the monetarist doctrine and the theory of “supply-side economics,” the problem of external borrowing and public debt becomes one of the most controversial in the debate between monetarists and Keynesians (neo-Keynesians). Considering the reduction of government spending as one of the most important levers of influence on economic processes, “supply-side economics” opposes the use of external borrowing as an instrument of stabilization policy. According to representatives of this direction of economic theory, one should not expect effective long-term or short-term effects from the implementation of fiscal policy; moreover, the constant increase in the budget deficit, which occurs in accordance with the prescriptions of the Keynesian school, generates inflation.

The concepts of budget balance developed in economic theory (a budget balanced on an annual basis has become the exception rather than the rule) and the market influence of credit financing of government expenditures can be divided into four

1 Golovachev D.L. State debt. Theory, Russian and world practice: CheRo. - 1998 8 main trends: the theory of an annually balanced budget, the theory of cyclical budget balancing, the theory of automatically stabilizing economic policies, the theory of a compensating budget.

Give a detailed definition of external borrowing as an economic category expressing a certain set of economic relations in the systems of national and world economies;

To clarify the classification of countries receiving external borrowing for the purpose of debt restructuring;

Reveal the nature of the relationship between the state’s external debt and its income and expenses, with the construction of a model of this relationship;

Propose methods for calculating the optimal and maximum permissible external debt of a country;

Develop a model for optimizing external borrowing of funds by the Russian state;

Put forward proposals for optimizing the servicing of Russia's external debt.

The subject of the study is the influence of external debt on the process of social reproduction and optimization within its framework

The object of the study is the formation, servicing and repayment of external debt of sovereign states, primarily Russia, in interaction with their economic development.

The scientific novelty of the dissertation research is as follows:

The influence of external debt on the economic development of a sovereign state has been systematically studied in the context of the emergence of new realities in human society, in particular taking into account the transition from the industrial stage of development of productive forces to the information-industrial stage, as well as fundamental changes in the geopolitical space of the world in recent years and objectively determined its further changes in the 21st century;

The essence, nature and mechanism of formation of the state’s external debt are revealed from the position of the trinity: the junction of the national and world economies; national economy; the world economy as a whole;

Based on an analysis of the place of Russia's external debt in the system of global external debt and an assessment of its economic potential, recommendations have been developed in the field of optimizing the financial strategy and policy of the Russian state in relation to its debt.

The main results of the dissertation research, obtained personally by the applicant and submitted for defense:

The patterns of interaction between the state’s external debt and the process of social reproduction have been formed and substantiated;

The nature of the relationship between the state’s external debt, its income and expenses is revealed, with the construction of models of this relationship;

Formulas for calculating the optimal and maximum permissible external debt of a country are proposed;

A model has been developed for optimizing economic relations regarding external borrowing of funds by the Russian state - servicing and repaying public debt;

Proposals to optimize the servicing of Russia's external debt have been put forward and justified.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was the theory of social reproduction, public finance, including public debt, as well as the theory of international capital movement. In preparing the dissertation, the author relied on the use of a systematic and attributive approach to the objects under study, general and specific techniques of economic research: observation and comparative analysis, data grouping, correlation and regression analysis, forecasting, modeling.

Empirical basis of the study. The work used data from the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, sources of the International Monetary Fund, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, United Nations commissions, analytical developments of the largest international banks - Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, Chase Manhattan, open materials of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, Prices and Trading Bank, and as well as various international and university conferences on problems of economic development of Russia.

The practical significance of the dissertation work lies in the possibility of its use:

Government bodies in the process of developing a strategy for regulating external borrowings and its legislative implementation;

Russian banks and exchanges, financial funds in the process of analyzing and forecasting the dynamics and nature of external borrowings;

Higher educational institutions in teaching economic theory, as well as a number of financial and credit disciplines;

Specialists engaged in research in the field of theory and practice of external debt.

Testing and implementation. The main results of the dissertation research were presented by the author at scientific conferences and published in the form of separate brochures. A number of proposals and recommendations contained in the dissertation have found application in practical work to improve the legislative framework of the Russian Federation.

Structure of the dissertation. The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references and applications, and includes 11 analytical graphs and 31 tables.

Dissertation: conclusion on the topic "Economic Theory", Plekhanov, Sergei Vyacheslavovich

CONCLUSION

External economic borrowing by the state, depending on its relative size to the economic potential of the country and its GDP, plays a significant role in the process of social reproduction within the country. The positive or negative role of external borrowing depends on the optimality of its volume and on the direction and efficiency of the use of funds raised by borrowing funds from abroad.

As is known, the borrower of external loans can be either the central government itself in the state, or individual state and private structures in a sectoral and territorial context, including individual firms (enterprises). In all these cases, we classify external borrowing as borrowing by the state, distinguishing between public and private structures within its framework. In political terms, the sovereignty of the state extends to all private structures on its territory. In economic terms, its potential and development are determined by the entire set of economic units on its territory, including private ones.

External economic borrowing arises and exists as an interaction between the lender and the borrower, in the process of implementing foreign economic relations in various forms: a) interstate loans, b) loans from international organizations, c) raising borrowed funds in the loan capital markets.

The external debt of all countries of the world, its structure and dynamics, is an essential element of the world economy and politics, having a significant impact on the state and dynamics of the global monetary and credit system.

External borrowing of funds is not only directly interconnected with social reproduction (direct, backward and network connections), but also its specific content with economic relations, the nature of the impact on economic growth and living standards of the population, its current development - all this taken together ultimately and is primarily predetermined by the dynamics, pace and proportions of social reproduction, moreover, in combination with the degree of optimality of both the amount of external borrowing and the use of funds received through its channel.

With all this, external borrowing appears in the form of a certain cycle:

5) external borrowing of funds by the state;

6) use of borrowed funds;

7) servicing external debt;

8) debt repayment.

This cycle is somewhat modified when the borrower of funds abroad is not a government body, but a business entity that can resort to external loans either with or without a state guarantee (a guarantee from a fairly reliable business entity, for example, a large bank, or pledge of property).

The applicant has developed a model of the relationship between the state’s external borrowings and social reproduction on a national scale.

The model is based on the action of objective laws, which were first formulated by the applicant as follows.

Pattern 1. External borrowing by the state interacts with social reproduction as a cycle, the phases of which are: a) borrowing; b) use of funds; c) debt service; d) repayment.

Regularity 2. The need for external borrowing, its optimal maximum permissible limits in time dynamics, the possibility of servicing and repaying external debt, the trend of its development, the efficiency of use (including investment) of borrowed funds in the economic aspect are determined by social reproduction, its proportions and rates.

Regularity 3. The use of funds borrowed by the state, including by business entities, is carried out through the following objectively determined channels: a) investments; b) restructuring; c) urgent needs of the state.

At the same time, investments and restructuring, if they are effective, bring enough funds to service and repay external debt and, in addition, ensure their increase beyond that. The spending of borrowed funds on urgent needs, as well as their ineffective use as investments or for restructuring, must be covered by a corresponding increase in social reproduction.

Regularity 4. To ensure effective and sustainable economic growth in the system of social reproduction, in addition to other necessary conditions, external borrowings made by the country, their servicing and repayments must be fully ensured by additional growth in gross domestic product.

Pattern 5. To neutralize the contradictions between the dynamics of external debt and its servicing and repayment in the system of social reproduction, it is necessary to both optimize the relationship between the increase (reduction) of external debt and economic growth, and coordinate the increase in income on a national scale in time with the debt payment schedule.

Having analyzed the evolution of the system of external borrowing (ERB) by states, the applicant came to the following conclusions.

1. The gigantic growth of external debt on the scale of the world economy was the objective factor that, in addition to subjective motives, forced creditor countries, together with controlled organizations (IMF, World Bank), to form a system of external borrowing by states of funds, which includes both the procedure for providing loans, as well as their restructuring or write-off.

2. The process of forming a SVZ is determined on the basis of: a) coordination of the conflicting interests of the countries involved in the SVZ, and with significant contradictions not only between creditor countries and debtor countries, but also between creditor countries; b) lengthy negotiation processes; c) taking into account national legislative restrictions in the allocation of funds for the restructuring or repayment of external debt (for example, the Trinidad conditions for the restructuring and repayment of external debts were not accepted by the G7 participants due to the fact that the US government was unable to overcome legal and budgetary restrictions inside the country); d) response (both prompt and slow) to the unfolding situation with external debt on the scale of the world economy and its regions; e) especially rapid adoption of emergency measures in situations where the external debt crisis of individual countries posed a real threat of spreading in the form of a chain reaction to the entire system of global external debt, and through this threatened the stability of the world monetary, credit and financial system.

3. As the scale of external debt grew and the problems of its servicing and repayment worsened, creditor countries developed increasingly flexible and differentiated agreements in the field of external borrowing, restructuring and writing off external debt; these agreements were named after the places where they were adopted; The work identifies and analyzes the following stages in the development of such agreements: a) Bretton Woods Agreement (1944), when the IMF and the World Bank were created, the basic rules governing external debt were determined; b) in connection with the evolution of the world monetary and credit system, the IMF charter changed radically (in 1969, the introduction of the SDR system; in 1976, with the creation of the Jamaican currency system; in 1992, the introduction of sanctions against countries that did not repay the IMF debts) ; c) throughout the entire period of the IMF’s activities, various types of specialized lending funds were created, for example: the Buffer (Reserve) Stock Lending Fund (1969); Fund for financial support of operations to reduce and service external debt (1989); Structural Change Support Fund (1993);

4. With regard to the restructuring and write-off of part of the external debt in the SVZ, as a result of step-by-step agreements between creditor countries over many years, various schemes were developed, the application of which was agreed upon in advance depending on the combination of certain economic indicators (regulatory values were established for them) in some countries , differentiated by groups of GDP per capita.

5. In the practice of providing new loans, restructuring external debt and reducing part of the debt, as a rule, political motives among leading creditor countries prevail over narrow economic interests related directly to external debt. In strategic terms, political motives ensure the implementation of the long-term economic interests of the United States and other G7 countries.

6. Along with the IMF and the World Bank, these formalized structures in the SVZ, the Paris and London Clubs were formed - these informal, not registered international organizations that resolve many issues of external debt on a global scale, depending on the specific situation, but at the same time, As a rule, the condition for restructuring the external debt and writing off part of it is loyalty to the International Monetary Fund and compliance with all its proposals by the debtor country.

7. The IMF’s requirements for debtor countries are drawn up according to a single template; all recommendations (requirements) of this fund are reduced to the utmost liberalization of the national economy, including the complete privatization of state-owned enterprises, the absence of government intervention in the economy, minimizing state budget expenditures, and the complete opening of borders for foreign trade and the flow of capital, granting non-residents the same rights in the economy as residents, etc.;

8. When deciding on the issue of restructuring external debt, the Paris Club is guided by the following criteria: a) the presence of an immediate threat of termination of debt repayments; b) fulfillment of certain conditions (implementation of the country’s economic policy according to IMF recipes); c) uniform distribution of losses from non-repayment of debt obligations among creditors.

9. The London Club, which includes commercial banks, the composition of which is very flexible, is engaged in the restructuring of debts, the return of which is not guaranteed by states whose business entities are debtors, and therefore the club members take a purely individual approach to debtor countries, relying primarily on on the criteria of economic profitability and focusing on the recommendations of the Banking Advisory Committee (BAC), formed by club members; unlike the Paris Club, the London Club, as a rule, does not revise either the principal amount of the debt or interest payments, restructuring the debt by providing the country with a new loan; however, the debtor country is often not required to enter into an agreement with the IMF on standby loans.

10. The flexibility of the London Club’s approach to debtors does not allow it to formulate clearly enough procedures for debt restructuring, while the Paris Club is characterized by clear regulation of the relevant procedures.

The work clarifies the classification of countries receiving external debt for the purpose of its restructuring, taking into account a set of factors, including the level of external debt to GDP, the level of country income, the level of economic potential and the degree of its use, as well as the ratio of external debt to state budget expenditures.

Using the example of some countries, including Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, a number of the most common external debt restructuring schemes are analyzed:

Exchange of one debt obligation for another (the “bond-bond” scheme);

Exchange of debt for shares within the framework of the state privatization program (bonds-shares scheme);

Long-term repurchase of debt obligations at a discount (“repurchase” scheme);

Write-off of part of debt obligations.

Analysis of the application of all these schemes allowed us to draw the following conclusions:

1. By themselves, all of the above schemes can serve, depending on the specific circumstances of their application, multidirectional economic interests: a) mutually beneficial interests of creditors and debtors; b) unilateral benefit of creditors; c) the primary benefit of the debtors.

2. The effectiveness of the “bonds-bonds” scheme is determined by the degree of effectiveness of the policy of issuing new government bonds for the purpose of exchanging them for old ones.

3. The “bonds-shares” scheme is carried out in the interests of the debtor country and taking into account the interests of the creditor countries in the event that the price of the shares corresponds to their real value, but this same scheme means the gratuitous transfer of part of the national wealth of the debtor country to the creditor countries.

4. Early repurchase of debt obligations at a discount corresponds to the economic interests of the debtor country if the value of the discount exceeds the economic benefit that could be obtained if the funds allocated for early repayment of debt were used as investments in highly efficient projects in the real sector of the economy.

5. Write-off of debt obligations, which in itself is beneficial to the debtor and leads to the loss of previously loaned funds, is accompanied by large economic losses in strategic terms for the debtor country in all cases where the condition for writing off debts is the implementation of an economic policy that is objectively consistent with the political and economic interests of creditor countries and conflicting national-state, including economic, interests of debtor countries.

The work systematically examines the nature of external borrowing of funds by the state in connection with its choice of strategy for social and economic development. At the same time, special attention is paid to the relationship between external borrowing and the income and expenses of the borrower state. The applicant has built a model of this relationship (see diagram 2.1.1.).

Violation of the optimality of this relationship leads to an aggravation of the situation with external debt, up to its crisis.

In a number of cases, the external debt of the state increases according to the principle of a financial pyramid.

Extreme approaches are present in both of the above directions. In one of them, government spending is reduced to the bare minimum; financing of investment and the social sphere (the latter, with some exceptions) is assigned to the private sector of the economy. In another approach, the entire economy is actually nationalized, and the entire national product actually acts as state income, which is distributed by it at its own discretion. None of these extremes (except for the nationalization of the economy during times of war, devastation, etc.) has ever led or could lead to the successful economic development of the country. Only a balanced, balanced approach that combines the self-activity of the market with the reasonable influence of the state on the development of the country’s economy can lead to its prosperity.

The work uses the example of a number of countries, such as industrialized countries (USA, France, Great Britain, Germany, etc.), newly industrialized countries (South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, etc.), as well as developing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Peru etc.) analyzed cash flows on the global economy in connection with the external debt of the countries of the world, in conditions of complete liberalization of the economic development strategy of countries that have become completely dependent on the IMF, and the increasing globalization of the world economy. At the same time, in particular, it was established that the USA and Great Britain, these countries that acted as the architects of the global borrowing system, are characterized by bilateral flows of external loans. Since the early 90s, there has been a significant increase in the net inflow of funds from private sources to developing countries and countries with economies in transition, which is associated with a number of factors: a) decreasing fears of nationalization of objects in which borrowed funds were invested after the collapse of the USSR; b) an increase in the need for borrowed funds; c) lack of available funds to provide loans from industrialized Western countries and international financial organizations (IMF, IBRD); d) high speculative expectations; e) the desire of a number of private investors to develop new economic niches in other countries. However, in contrast to this, especially in times of crisis in countries entangled in networks of external debt, there is often a crowding out of private investment and government borrowing - a crowding out effect.

Complete liberalization of all cash flows, including in the form of external borrowing, on the scale of the world economy as a whole is a utopia. Such liberalization is possible only for a part of the countries that have become completely dependent on the IMF. Other countries, primarily the most powerful economically, politically and militarily, led by the United States, exercise strict monopoly control over the flow of borrowing in the global economy, while pursuing their own interests related to the transfer of the national wealth of other countries in their favor. At the same time, the increasing globalization of the world economy leads to the consolidation in legislative form, especially at the level of international law, of the liberalization of financial flows throughout the world, including those related to external borrowing. However, such liberalization means an increasing liberation of financial flows, especially credit flows, from control by sovereign states, but in no way liberation from control by the global financial oligarchy, which uses this control for its own selfish interests. At the same time, control over financial, especially credit, flows in the foreign economic sphere is increasing on the part of international organizations (WTO, IMF, World Bank), and in them, as is known, the role of actual masters is played by the USA, Great Britain and other leading Western countries, and states in these countries are under the control of the global financial oligarchy.

Consequently, behind the external liberalization of financial flows in the modern world economy, their monopolization by the global financial oligarchy is hidden, using the governments of national states and international organizations, especially economic ones, to control the movement of money in the world economy.

GDP (in recent years this applies to Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, and also Canada)1.

Public debt management in a broad sense refers to the formation of a state strategy in the field of borrowing funds. Public debt management in the narrow sense is the management of specific activities in the field of borrowing funds by the state and balancing the public debt.

In relation to a regulated market economy operating in the interests of the national state, the details of the model characterizing the relationship of external borrowing with government revenues and expenses have been clarified (see Diagram 2.1.1). In particular, it has been established that an excessive increase in borrowing causes an increase in the interest rate on the loan, and this, in turn, has a depressive effect on the economy, as a result, economic growth slows down, which makes it difficult to service and repay debt.

In the process of external borrowing, the country resorting to it must maintain certain proportions both in the production process itself at the macro level and in the formation of the corresponding income. Particularly important is the optimal relationship between production volumes and personal consumption, savings and investments. Exports and imports respectively increase and decrease the resources consumed by the country for a given period of time, and external borrowings transfer to the future that deduction from national consumption with interest, which corresponds to its increase at a given time due to imports. For successful economic development, it is necessary that the magnitude of the additional return resulting from additional investment exceeds the corresponding deduction from national consumption.

Although it is preferable to use funds raised in the form of external loans as investments in the most effective projects in the real sector of the economy, in some cases the following scheme may be effective: a) a certain amount of external borrowing covers non-productive expenses of the state; b) state resources saved in this way are directed as investments in effective projects in the production sector; c) part of the returns from the implementation of these projects is used to service and repay external debt.

Along with standard indicators of the external debt burden (its ratio to exports and GDP; the ratio of payments for servicing public debt to exports and government revenues or expenses), it is advisable for lenders and borrowers to use their own, individually specific indicators adapted to the characteristics of a given country.

Countries with high and sustainable export growth rates can maintain higher levels of external debt without damaging their national economies.

The key point in optimizing external debt for the long term is economic growth, and it depends on the volume

223 investments. Attempts to quickly repay external debt by reducing investment can undermine economic growth, which ultimately will only exacerbate the problem of external debt.

For effective management of external debt, it is necessary to accurately determine the time frame of obligations to repay it in the context of projected export revenues, as well as tax revenues, while simultaneously using various types of favorable opportunities for debt restructuring.

The state needs to implement a systematic approach to external borrowing, defining policies regarding it as an integral part of the country's socio-economic development strategy.

In this work, based on data from the State Statistics Committee, international statistics, and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the state of the external debt of the Russian Federation and its structure are analyzed.

The total external debt of Russia by category of borrowers is distributed as follows: restructured debt of the former USSR and new Russian debt, Eurobonds and domestic foreign currency loan bonds - 78%; debt to commercial banks and companies - 21%; debt of the constituent entities of the Federation - 1%, structure of Russia's external debt by debt instruments (in percent): loans from foreign countries - 36; loans from foreign commercial banks and firms - 17; restructured loans to the former USSR, as well as its interest-bearing bonds - 16; loans on a multilateral basis - 14; Eurobonds -11; OVGVZ - 6.

An analysis of the size of Russia’s external debt in comparison with its economic potential allows us to conclude that it is quite capable of not only servicing it independently, but also repaying it in full, however, if it pursues an effective economic policy, including in the field of external borrowing.

Based on international statistics data, concentrated in 16 statistical tables, a comparative analysis of the main parameters of external debt and other countries was carried out, in particular for:

The absolute amount of debt;

Share in the volume of global debt (3.9%);

Rates and indices of growth of external debt;

External debt per capita, including in relation to the world average, as well as in terms of the rate and indices of growth of external debt per capita;

The ratio of external debt to exports;

Expenses for servicing external debt, including in absolute amount, as a percentage of exports;

Interest payments on external debt, including absolute amounts, as well as as a share of GDP and exports;

Gold and foreign exchange reserves, including as a percentage of GDP and external debt.

The dissertation examines the features of external debt and its servicing during the period of radical reform of the Russian economy. Based on an analysis of this debt and its servicing, a forecast assessment of the development of the situation with external debt in Russia in the coming years is given. Even in the case of the most unfavorable scenario,

In terms of net debt payments, the Russian Federation in no way falls into a situation of external debt crisis, despite the fact that since 2003 the relative burden of Russian debt payments has been heavier compared to previous years. Regarding the parameters of the balance of payments, GDP volume, and basic financial indicators, Russian payments on external debt both in the previous period and in the coming years, despite their noticeable increase, are fully consistent with established international standards and do not threaten the economic security of the country.

At the same time, given the strong economic recession and the freezing of investment activity over the past 10 years (the annual volume of investments in real terms in 2001 was 5 times less than in 1990)1 the pressure of external debt on the country’s economy aggravates the problem its improvement and ensuring highly efficient and sustainable economic growth.

Based on the study of external debt, the applicant developed a model for optimizing external borrowing of funds by Russia (see diagram 3.4.1).

In relation to Russia, the applicant has developed formulas for determining the maximum permissible and optimal level of external debt. These formulas are presented in the final section of the dissertation.

From the existing range of alternative strategies for managing external debt, the applicant has chosen and justified, as the most effective, a strategy that can conventionally be called traditional or classical. The criterion for choosing this strategy was a combination of the following elements:

Minimizing the total costs of servicing external debt;

Maximum reduction in the nominal amount of debt;

Acceleration of economic growth.

The implementation of the traditional (classical) strategy for managing external debt in relation to Russia should be expressed in the following: refusal to revise the current payment schedule and their implementation in accordance with it;

Equality of net payments on debt to full payments;

Determination of payments on external debt from state budget revenues;

Using convertible currency as a means of payment.

Dissertation: bibliography in Economics, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Plekhanov, Sergey Vyacheslavovich, Moscow

1. On the organization of work related to the attraction and use of foreign loans Resolution of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation dated October 16, 1993 No. 1060.

2. On attracting financial resources from international capital markets in 1998, Resolution of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation dated March 14, 1998 No. 302.

3. Avdokushin E.F. International economic relations. M. Information and implementation center "Marketing", 2000

4. Amirkhanova F. Development of financial methods for managing Russia’s external debt. M.: Dialogue MSU. 1997

5. Anulova G. International monetary and financial organizations and developing countries. M.: Service. -1998

6. Astakhov V.P. Export and import operations M.: Axis 89. - 1995.

7. Banking. Textbook. M.: Finance and Statistics. 1998

8. Bard B.C. Investment problems of the Russian economy. M.: Publishing house "Exam". 2000

9. Birman G., Schmidt S. Economic analysis of investment projects. M.: Finance and Statistics 1998.

10. Bogatyrev A.D. Investment law. M.-Publishing house "Russian Law". 1998

11. Buglai V.B., Livadov N.N. International economic relations. M.:

12. Finance and statistics. 1996

13. Bunkina M. National economy. M.: Business. - 1997

14. Vavilov A. Public debt: lessons from the crisis and principles of management. M.: Publishing house "Gorodets-izdat" - 2001.

15. Vavilov Yu. Public debt. M.: Publishing house "Perspective". -2000

16. Vavilov Yu. State credit: past and present, M.: Finance and statistics. -1992

17. Gross T. European currency system. M.: Novation. 1998

18. Vinod Thomas, John Nash. Foreign trade policy: experience of reforms; M, "Infra-M" - 1997

19. Gabrichidze B.N. Russian customs law. M.: "Infra-M-NORMA" 1997.

20. Gerchikova N.N. International commercial business M.: Banks and exchanges, UNITI, - 1998.

21. Golovachev D.L. State debt. Theory, Russian and world practice: CheRo. 1998

22. Money, credit, banks. Textbook Ed. O.I. Lavrushina M.: Finance and Statistics 1998

23. Zabelin A. The problem of debt and the optimal volume of foreign economic relations, abstract of thesis. diss. Ph.D. econ. Sci. M.: RAS. Institute of International Economics and Political Studies. 1994

24. Kamaev V.D., Textbook on the basics of economic theory, Moscow: VLADOS, -1996.

25. Kireev A.P. International Economics. In 2 parts 4.1. Textbook for universities. -M.: International relations. - 1998.

26. Kostyuk V.N., History of economic teachings, M.: Center - 1997.

27. Krasavina L.N. International monetary, credit and financial relations. M.: Finance and Statistics. 1994

28. Course of economic theory, ed. Chepurina., M: Publishing House "ASA", 1996.

29. Morgunova A.I. Shakalov M.I. Investment and currency legislation. Theoretical course. M.: MEGU. 1995

30. Noskova I.Ya. International monetary relations. M.: Banks and exchanges, UNITY. - 1995.

31. Russia’s transition to sustainable development. Noosphere strategy

32. M.: Publishing house "Noosphere" - 1999.

33. Puzakova E. World economy. - M.: Phoenix. 2001

34. Sarkisyants A. System of international debts. M.: DeKa. 1999

35. Storchak S. Debts and politics. M.: Finance and Statistics. - 1992

36. Fashinsky I.P. The basis of foreign economic knowledge M.: International relations. 1994

37. Fedyakina JI.H. Global external debt: theory and practice of settlement. M.: Business and Service. - 1998

38. Khasbulatov R. World economy. M.: Insan. - 1998

39. Shepaev V. Money, currency and balance of payments of Russia. M.: RAS. Institute of Europe. 1996

40. Schmidheini S. Financing change - M.: Publishing House "Noosphere" - 1998

41. Shokhin A. Russia’s external debt. M.: Business and Service. 1997

42. Schrepler H.A. International economic organizations: Directory.-M.: International relations, 1997.

43. Economics of Russia's External Relations, Moscow, ed. "BEK" - 1996

44. Bannock G. Dictionary of finance. Penguin Books. London.- 1989

45. Bayley M. National Income and the Price level. - N.Y.: MCGrow-Hill, - 1962.

46. Baham N/ The Debt Problem and the IMF's Perspective. Elgar Publishing Limited. - 1989 r.

47. Becker T. Government debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence. Stockholm School of Economics, - 1989.

48. BIAnchard 0. Fisher S. Lectures on Macroeconomics, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass. -1989 r.

49. Brealey R. Principles of Corporate finance. McGraw Hill.- 1997

50. Bunch C. Heinrich R. Russia's debt crisis and the unofficial economy. Kiel Institute of World Economics. - 2000.

51. George P. Paris Club and Bilateral agreements. Unitar.- 1990

52. Hay J., Bouchet H. The Tax, Accounting and Regulatory Treatment of Sovereign Debt. Washington D.C. World Bank. -1991 r.

53. Levinson J. A prospective on Russia's foreign debt. Pitman Publishing ltd. 2000.

54. Menkveld P. The origin and role of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Graham & Trotman Ltd. London, - 1998

55. Sachs J. Theoretical Issues in International Borrowing. -Prmseton University1984 -p. 49-74.

56. Wilson J. Voluntary Approach to Debt Relief. Washington D.C. Institute for International Economics. -1998 r.1. Articles

57. Adrianov A. The role of foreign capital in the Russian economy. Marketing. -1999-№6.-p.3-16.

58. Aleksandrovsky E. The World Bank and the problem of external debt. M: Fin.Business. 1997 - No. 11. - With. 54-66.

59. Alferov I. Russian external debt market. M.: RCB 1996 - No. 5 - p. 3536.

60. Amirkhanova F., External debt: unusual solutions. Economics and life, 1998 - No. 2, p. 4.

61. Afontsev S., External debt of Russia. World Economy, International Relations, 1998, No. 7, pp. 5-18.

62. Bazylev N.I., Bondar A.V., Gurko S.P., Economic theory, Minsk: Ecoperspective, 1997, p. 386.

63. Balatsky E. Principles of public debt management. M.: MeiMO. 1997 - No. 5. - With. 36-51.

64. Vavilov A., Trofimov G. Stabilization and management of Russia’s external debt. M.: Economic issues. -1997 -No. 12 p. 85-110.

65. Vavilov A., Kovalishin E., Problems of restructuring Russia’s external debt: theory and practice. // Questions of Economics, 1999, No. 5, pp. 78-93.

66. Power - 2001 -№50.-c.l 1.

67. Economic issues. -2001 No. 4. - p.23.

68. Money. 1998. - No. 26. - With. 16.

69. Doronin I. Problems of attracting foreign capital to the economy of the USSR. M. Economics and mathematical methods. 1991 - No. 6.

70. Zhukov P., The State is us. It owes us, we owe it. Economics and Life, 1998, No. 1, p. 3.

72. Zadornov M. It is necessary to limit not the influx of currency, but inflation. - Kommersant, 2001, June 26., p.2.

73. Ivanov K. Russian Economy: survival without investment. M. Economics and life. 1997 - No. 2. - p.2-7.

74. Illarionov A. Economic policy in an open economy with a significant raw material sector. M.: Economic issues. -2001 -No. 4.

75. Knaster A. Efficiency of borrowing foreign capital by the government of the Russian Federation. M.: IVF. 1997 - No. 12. -With. 54-66.

76. Kuzmichev V., The government intends to pay off its debts. M.: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 1997, July 10, p. 4.

77. Kuryerov V.G., Foreign trade policy, foreign investments and external debt of Russia. M.: ECO, 1999, No. 9, pp. 16-31.

78. Meshchersky A., The heavy cross of our debts. M.: Arguments and Facts, 1999, No. 48, p. 9.

79. Obaeva A. On the issue of the external debt of the state and its management. M.: Money and credit. 1997 - No. 11-s. 65-71.

80. Profile. -2001 No. 42, - p. 32.

81. Petrakov N., Godzinsky A., And pay off the debt and revive production. M.Economy and Life, 1998, No. 39, p. 1.

82. Sarafanov M. Russia: life on loan. M.: Economics and life. 1993 -№1 l.-c. 1.

83. Semenov V. External debt of Russia. M.: ME and MO. 1994 - No. 5 - p. 30-37.

84. Sarkisyants A.G., Problems of Russia’s external debt. M.: Money and Credit, 1999, No. 2, pp. 94-108.

85. Sarkisyants A.G., Russia in the system of global debt. M.: Questions of Economics, 1999, No. 5, pp. 94-108.

86. Sevkova V., Virkunets V., Russian officials handed over 53 billion dollars to the West. M.: Arguments and Facts, 1999, No. 23, p. 4.

87. Sidorov M., Tirelessly shaking the debt counter. M.: Economics and Life, 1998, No. 22, сЗ.

88. Sidorov M., Borrowing is easy, giving back is difficult. M.: Economics and Life, 1997, No. 52, сЗ.

89. Simonov V., Kukharev A., Prospects for the development of the Russian domestic government debt market. M.: Questions of Economics, 1998, No. 11, pp. 65-77.

90. Simonov V., Market of internal public debt of Russia: ways of further development. M.: Power, 1998, No. 10-11, pp. 58-77.

91. Sokolov V., For whom we borrow. M.: Arguments and Facts, 1998, No. 30, p. 5.

92. Tikhonov A. The Russian Empire always repaid its debts. RCB, - 1996 No. 6.-p. 22-23.

93. Khakamada I., Public debt: structure and management. // Questions of Economics, 1997, No. 4, pp. 67-79.

94. Tsybukov V. Who pays the debts of the USSR? M.: International life. 1994 - No. 10.-s. 103-109

95. Shokhin A. How not to get into a debt loop. M.: Economic issues. -1997 - No. 5-s. 4-18.

96. Expert. -2001 No. 45.- p. 10.

97. Expert. -2002 No. 34.-p.42.

98. Expert. -2002 No. 38, - p.5.

99. Expert. -2002 No. 40.- p. 51.

100. Yasin E. Gavrilenkov E. On the problem of settling the external debt of the Russian Federation. M.: Economic issues. -1999 -No. 5. p.71.

101. Yasin E. Economic growth as a goal and as a means (current situation and prospects for the Russian economy). - Economic Issues, 2001, N 9.

102. Barro R. Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? - Journal of Political Economy. - 1974. No. 82.-p. 93-112. 185

103. Figaro Economie, August 25, 1998.

105. Peter Mountfeld, "The Paris Club and African Debt," Speech to IDS Seminar, University of Sussex, 4th May, 1988 (Mimeogragh), p. 6.

106. UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report 1989 (NY: United Nations, 1989), pp. 53-54.

107. Statistical collections and reference books

108. Review of the Russian economy. M. Progress Academy. -2000 No. 1

109. Russian statistical yearbook M.; Goskomstat, 2002

110. Russia in numbers. M.: State Medical Center of the State Committee of the Russian Federation for Statistics. 2001

111. International Debt and Developing Countries. World Debt Tables by World Bank, -1998, -pp. 162-163.

112. IMF Annual report. Washington D.C. - 2001.

114. World debt tables 1991-1998. -World Bank, Washington D.C. 1999.

115. World Bank: World Bank Glossary of Finance and Debt. -Washington D.C. -2001.

116. World Bank. Global Development Finance. - Building Coalitions for Effective Development Finance, Washington vol. 1-2, 2001.

117. World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund 1992-1998, Washigton D.C., IMF, 1992-1998.

118. World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, October 1999.

Introduction

Chapter 1. Nature and theoretical and methodological problems of the process of external borrowing of funds by the state 13

1.1. The economic essence of the mechanism for external borrowing of funds by the state 13

1.2. The process of evolution of external borrowing of funds by the state 31

1.3. Alternative options for lending funds and their features 75

Chapter 2. External borrowings of funds by the state in connection with its choice of socio-economic development strategy 98

2.1. The relationship between external borrowing and income and expenses of the borrower state 98

2.3. The use of external borrowing in a model of a regulated market economy and in the implementation of an economic strategy focused on national and state interests 127

Chapter 3. Problems of external borrowing by the Russian Federation 151

3.1. The state of the external debt of the Russian Federation 151

3.2. Comparative analysis of the main parameters of the external debt of Russia and other countries 162

3.3. Features of external debt and its servicing during the period of radical economic reforms 180

3.4. Ways and methods of optimizing external debt, its servicing and repayment 194

Conclusion 211

Applications 228

List of used literature 239

Introduction to the work

Servicing external debt still remains a big problem for Russia. So, in 2003 and 2004. to repay the external debt, the country must pay 19.72 and 14.56 billion dollars. A significant part of these payments are interest payments, amounting to 40.46 and 50.82% of the given amounts, respectively1. The existing volume of debt burden that Russia is forced to bear in the conditions of a reformed economy, which requires significant investments in industry and the financial sector, significantly reduces the state’s ability to effectively restructure it.

The degree of development of the problem;

Issues of the theory of public debt are reflected in the works of such foreign economists as Jeffrey Sachs, Robert Barro, Michael Bailey, John Levinson, Clark Bunch and others. A number of domestic publications are also devoted to the problems of settling the Russian external debt: A. Sarkisyan, O. Sukhovtseva, E. Yasin, A. Vavilova, A. Illarionova, S. Trofimov, A. Shokhin, D. Golovachev, L. Fedyakina, and a number of other authors .

Firstly, what functions and tasks can and should be undertaken by the state in the socio-economic sphere;

Secondly, to what extent government spending contributes to the development and efficiency of the national economy;

Fourthly, what are the consequences for the economy and society as a whole of the debt arising from credit financing of government expenses?

The answers to these questions from various representatives of world economic thought were ambiguous and often contradictory.

The negative assessment of government external borrowing in classical political economy was protested by many economists, including contemporaries of the classics. With the entry of representatives of the historical school into the scientific arena, the fundamental question of the theory of external borrowing becomes the question: for what purpose and to what extent can the state borrow money and what consequences this entails for the development of macroeconomics. At the end of the 19th century, A. Wagner formulated the basic principles for credit financing of government expenditures: fixed expenditures are financed only through taxes, emergency ones - mainly through government loans. At the same time, he identified the main criteria for determining the form of financing government activities: frequency, predictability (planning) and productivity (profitability) of government spending. The Keynesian Revolution brought many new aspects to the discussion of government debt. Thanks to the “functional” consideration, the state received the right not only monetary, but also through other anti-cyclical measures to smooth out market fluctuations, to actually intervene in the structure of the social process of production and distribution. The resulting public debt is one of the consequences of the state stabilization policy. Keynesian economic theory rejected the dogma of a balanced budget, legalizing budget deficits to stimulate the economy, and external borrowing became an integral part of the opportunistic aspect of government economic policy.

With the advent of the monetarist doctrine and the theory of “supply-side economics,” the problem of external borrowing and public debt becomes one of the most controversial in the debate between monetarists and Keynesians (neo-Keynesians). Considering the reduction of government spending as one of the most important levers of influence on economic processes, “supply-side economics” opposes the use of external borrowing as an instrument of stabilization policy. According to representatives of this direction of economic theory, one should not expect effective long-term or short-term effects from the implementation of fiscal policy; moreover, the constant increase in the budget deficit, which occurs in accordance with the prescriptions of the Keynesian school, generates inflation.

The concepts of budget balancing developed in economic theory (a budget balanced on an annual basis has become the exception rather than the rule) and the opportunistic influence of credit financing of government expenditures can be divided into four main trends: the theory of an annually balanced budget, the theory of cyclical budget balancing, and the theory of automatically stabilizing economic policies. , the theory of compensating budget.

The purpose of the study is specified in the following tasks:

Give a detailed definition of external borrowing as an economic category expressing a certain set of economic relations in the systems of national and world economies;

To clarify the classification of countries receiving external borrowing for the purpose of debt restructuring;

Reveal the nature of the relationship between the state’s external debt and its income and expenses, with the construction of a model of this relationship;

Propose methods for calculating the optimal and maximum permissible external debt of a country;

Develop a model for optimizing external borrowing of funds by the Russian state;

Put forward proposals for optimizing the servicing of Russia's external debt.

The subject of the study is the influence of external debt on the process of social reproduction and optimization within its framework.