Win-win strategy for tennis games. Game theory in tennis. What to do if you lost a bet in a game

Sports betting strategies in tennis are very popular both among beginners who are just learning the world of betting, and among experienced bettors. Despite the fact that no strategy will give a 100% guarantee that all bets will win, many of them bring profit in the medium or long term.

In order to bet on tennis, you need to study all the main features of this sport, analyze all available data, and thoroughly understand tennis and tennis players.

Betting lines for tennis are different from those for football, hockey and similar sports. Here you can bet on the result of games, total games and many other outcomes.

Game Betting Strategies

The game betting strategy is one of the varieties of catch-up, and is not recommended for beginners. As you know, in a set, athletes serve in turn: in the first game, the first tennis player serves, in the second - the second, and so on.

The game strategy is to bet on the victory of the serving tennis player. Statistics say that athletes win their serves in most cases, even in games with the strongest opponents.

In order for a tennis betting strategy to work, it is important to choose the right matches. Tennis players must have different level, while it is stupid to bet on a beginner as opposed to the first racket of the world. Optimally - if one of the opponents is a strong middle peasant, the other goes to the championship title.

The average player can beat top tennis players for several games on their serves. The athlete will lose the whole match, but we don’t need him to win. We play games where he pitches. And provided that the coefficient is greater than 1.60.

The game betting strategy can be combined with catch-up. If the bet does not pass, it is doubled. For example, you bet one hundred rubles that the serving tennis player will win the game. The bet does not pass, the athlete loses. The next bet on the fact that he will win the game on the serve will already be two hundred rubles. After winning - return to the beginning and repeat the cycle. It is important to stop in time and stop betting a few games before the final: there is a risk of overclocking and losing the bank.

Set betting strategies

One of the leading strategies of this type is the third set betting system. Bets are made in live, while two conditions must be met:

Opponents should be approximately equal.

• The difference in the odds for winning at the beginning of the match should not exceed 0.60.

If tennis players are approximately equal, and the first set ends with a solid victory for one of them, the bookmakers change the odds dramatically, overestimating the winner of the first set. Accordingly, quotes for the victory of his opponent are growing.

The essence of the strategy is as follows: if, following the results of the first set, the odds for the victory of one of the tennis players are less than 1.15-1.20, we bet against him. When the quotes start to grow and the numbers return to the pre-match figures, we bet “back”.

The main conditions under which the strategy works are compliance with the above conditions and a thorough analysis of the participants in the match.

Favorite Betting Strategies

The strategy of betting on the favorite in tennis is to bet on the players at a coefficient of 1.45-1.65.

The player selects matches where there is a clear favorite and an outsider. Here you can focus on the quotes of bookmakers: bookmaker analysts conduct their own analysis and identify obvious contenders for victory. If the odds for the favorite is in the range of 1.45-1.65, you can bet on his victory.

For maximum efficiency, the favorite betting strategy can be combined with a suitable financial strategy, such as catch-up. Many professional players note that it is in tennis that most of the matches between the assessment of the favorite by the bookmaker and the real outcome of the match occur.

Betting strategies 40 40

The 40/40 tennis betting strategy is designed for real-time betting enthusiasts. Some bookmakers offer to bet live on the market "Score 40-40 - Yes" or "Score 40-40 - No", assuming that during the game there will (or will not be) such a score. Who wins the game and the match does not matter.

The 40-40 strategy is combined with the classic Martingale. A bet is made on the market "Score 40-40" in one of the games. If the bet does not pass, the game is skipped and a bet is made on the same market when the previous athlete submits. Given that the odds for this market fluctuate in the range of 2.50-4.00, at the first steps the bet can not be increased, then by the amount of the initial bet.

There are several nuances in the 40-40 strategy:

1. For the game for this strategy, women's tennis is more suitable. Male athletes are more stable, and when the game is equal, they usually take the game on their own serve.
2. The optimal spread in odds to win is 1.70-2.30.
3. The optimal coverage is soil. For experts, it is considered slow, so the draw may be delayed.
4. Do not join the game in the first games. If the first few games went without a score of 40-40, you can bet on this market in the next game.
5. When betting in real time, you need to watch the video broadcast. This allows you to understand the capabilities of the athletes - in particular, whether the host side will be able to impose a long fight with someone else's serve.

First Point Betting

The essence of the strategy is to bet on winning draw 1. The first point that the tennis player earns is played.

A point can be taken by both the serving player and the receiving player. The odds for the server in bookmakers are slightly higher. Before betting (if you plan to work for the future), you should familiarize yourself with the capabilities and preferences of tennis players, evaluate how often they take the first point in the game on their own and someone else's serve. Then choose a match with a suitable outcome in real time and place a bet.

You can assume that the player will sooner or later take a point on his serve, and bet catch-up, but this option is considered more risky. Optimal financial strategy- ladder, where you risk only the initial bet.

Express bets

In most bookmakers, you can choose from options for one outcome. For example, in handicaps, you can choose a handicap (-4.5) or (-2.5). Bet on the match total of 20.5 games or 17.5. This reduces the risk that the bet will not win.

The odds for less dangerous bets are much lower. Therefore, it is necessary to preliminary analysis one or more matches. If the tennis player on whom the handicap is betting is really capable of winning by a significant margin, and the outsider can resist and is able to take at least half of the games on his own serve, you can combine a couple of bets into an express bet. This increases the risk (two bets must play), but also increases the odds.

Correct Score Betting

The strategy of betting on the exact score in tennis is based on predicting the outcome of the match in sets. The number of sets is from three to five, depending on the championship. The game is played until victory in two or three sets.

The bet is placed on the exact score 2:0 (3:0) on the favorite. The odds for his victory should not exceed 1.50 - this allows you to immediately weed out extra games.

Before betting, it is necessary to analyze the performance of athletes on a specific surface. A tennis player can perform well on grass, but perform worse on clay. The statistics of successful innings, winnings on the opponent's serve, statistics of previous victories are analyzed. And in the event that a tennis player can really beat an opponent without losing a single set, you can bet.

For a profitable tennis betting strategy, dogon and other similar financial systems should not be used. It is best to bet flat, with fixed rates of 3-5 percent of game bank.

Drain rates

In some mid-level championships, a number of matches go under the same scheme. The tennis player takes the first set and beats the opponent with a devastating score. Players do additional rates: for the victory of this tennis player, handicap, lower total.

Some players use next strategy bets on draining in tennis: if one of the athletes wins the first set by a solid margin (3-4 points), while he is not an extra-class tennis player, and the tournament is not included in the Grand Slam, the opposite outcome can be bet on the second set .

Total bets

Total is one of the main tools for playing tennis. This indicator indicates the number of games that will be played in matches. When planning bets on game totals, it is worth considering that over the past few years two records have been set at once. In 2014, in Miami, Jarkko Nieminen and Bernard Tomic played 6:0, 6:1 and spent less than half an hour on the court. The match entered the Guinness Book of Records as the shortest, the total was only 13 games. And at Wimbledon in 2010, John Isner and Nicolas Mayu met. Match score: 6:4, 3:6, 6:7, 7:6 and (attention) 70:60. It is easy to calculate that the total was 183 games. Hardly anyone made a bet on it.

The average number of games in a two-set format is 22, in a five-set format - 36. Totals are higher on fast surfaces. If tennis players have a good serve and a weak reception, the total will be higher than with an unimportant serve and good reception.

Having determined the possible total in a tennis match, you can combine this strategy with financial systems- "ladder" or "catch-up".

Shchukin's strategy

The essence of Shchukin's strategy for tennis is betting on the victory of the receiving tennis player, or breakpoint. The strategy works with coefficients of three or more. There are two main recommendations:

1. Matches without obvious favorites are selected for bets.
2. You need to bet on men's and doubles tennis.

A slightly modified Martingale is used to manage the bank. The amount of the initial bet is taken as a unit. After the second loss, the bet doubles, then increases by one after each unsuccessful game.

Mathematical Tennis Betting Strategies

Almost all mathematical strategies used in tennis betting are related to the Martingale strategy. In the basic version, this strategy comes down to doubling the bet after each loss.

Martingale example with odds of 2.00:

The first bet is 50 rubles. Losing.

The second bet is 100 rubles. Losing.

The third bet is 200 rubles. Win.

In total, we bet 350 rubles, won 400. Net profit amounted to 50 rubles.

There are several derivatives of the basic Martingale: the Danish strategy, the Fibonacci number method, and so on. They differ in recommended odds for bets and various increase in bets (for example, not twice, but one and a half).

High odds

High odds are considered to be odds with a value of 4.00 or higher. In this case mathematical odds that the tennis player wins is estimated at 25 percent. There are also ultra-high odds - 10.00 and higher. Athletes who no one bets on also sometimes win.

If you follow pure mathematics, then one out of four matches can bring a win. In practice, a series of 8-10 or more defeats in a row is possible.

The strategy is suitable for players with large pots who can afford to lose a couple of bets and take theirs in the middle distance. The high odds strategy is often used in conjunction with various martingale derivatives.

High odds bets do not include accumulator bets, for which odds of 10.00 are not the limit. Each individual bet must be carefully analyzed and weighed. Experienced Players never rely solely on luck.

The most important component and it in itself is a serious weapon for a tennis player. When you realize this, the thought appears - how can you make money on this?

You can find several strategies for betting on a serving tennis player on the net, we will try to consider them in sufficient detail, and we will also offer another strategy that has not yet been voiced anywhere (in any case, we have not come across it). But let's start by discussing what odds we should expect

Odds "on the pitch"

It is easy to determine the expected odds for a tennis player to win on the serve. We go to the statistics section of the official website of the series and see how many (in percentage) of games a tennis player wins on his serve in Last year or during the current season (we already told you, the article contained information from this particular section).

To the existing percentage, you need to add another 2-4% to the score and another + 1-2% if the player has a powerful first serve and a high percentage of hitting the court with the first ball.

Let's take for example a few people from the TOP, Isner (as a typical specialist in his serve), Nishikori (as a player without a strong first serve, but with a high quality of play) and Ferrer, for whom the value of the serve is not so great. I repeat, these are all players from the TOP.

So, what will BC offer in games on Isner's serve? In 2015, he won 93% of games on his serve, he has a powerful first, which means another +1%, add +2% margin and get approximately 96%. Now from these data we get the coefficient:

As a rule, at the beginning of the match, the coefficient is given a little higher, and then it decreases, which means that before the first game we will see the coefficient from 1.05 to 1.07 in the line.

Nishikori has a percentage of games won 86%, he does not have a powerful serve, plus a margin and we get something in the region of 88-90%, which means that the coefficient on him will be approximately 1.11 - 1.14 (against a relatively equal opponent in rating, against weak odds will be lower).

The worst case is Ferrer, here it is only 80% + margin, the final ratio will be approximately 1.17 - 1.2.

It can also be noted here that players outside the top 20 have much more modest indicators, the most typical for men's tennis is about 70-75%. Accordingly, the odds will be higher, approximately 1.4 - 1.3.

In women's tennis, the situation is somewhat different (and there is no such an accessible source of statistics, but we can say that non-top tennis players "take" 63-68% of their serves, respectively, and the odds for them are noticeably higher, here you can often see something like 1 .6 - 1.8.

What are the betting strategies for serving tennis players?

Actually, there are only three most common strategies.

The first is banal bets on the server. The basis for this is precisely the general opinion that "server wins much more often." This is undoubtedly true, but we remember how the bookmaker works, and therefore we do not forget about the "margin" that is added to the server's chances. Therefore, we can say with confidence that we will not be able to earn money like this in the long term.

The second is to wait for the score 40-0 or 40-15 in favor of the server and at that moment place a bet on him. Here the situation is somewhat more complicated and interesting. Indeed, it is extremely rare for a tennis player (male) to lose a game with such a score. But the problem is that for such an account, the odds (already small) decrease even more and we will see something like 1.01 - 1.03. Those. if one such bet loses, we will need about 100 bets to fight back.

You can pay attention to women's tennis, here the odds will be higher (although not by much). But here the situation is ruined by the instability of women on the pitch, and even the score of 40-0 says little. And, again, it will take a long time to “beat off” the lost.

The third is the innings in women's tennis, which we will talk about separately. The principle is that we play after the fact that the tennis player takes her serve. Due to relatively high odds (up to 1.7), this strategy has the right to life, although it will be extremely risky.

Game Profitability Problem

The main problem with all these strategies is the negative expected value. There is no way we can get a mathematical advantage over the bookmaker, since the bookmaker is better informed in matters of statistics. For example, there is no data anywhere on how often a player loses on his serve, winning 40-0, etc. Bookmakers have entire analytical departments and software that, if desired, will allow you to quickly “sample” in statistics of this kind and get an idea of ​​​​what which is to be expected. This is what ruins strategies such as “waiting for a 40-0 score”.

In the case of other strategies, the margin is quite enough to “block” any opportunities for the bettor to mathematically “play plus”. Above, we talked about how the coefficients are determined, everything seems to be quite clear.

"Adrenaline strategy"

Actually, the concept of the strategy is not new. Once upon a time there was such an idea - “how to make a thousand rubles out of 100 in a week” - to bet every day on “sure” events with “acceleration” (also called “coasting”). It was not aimed at a specific income, it's just "beautiful" - to multiply the bank tenfold in a short period of time.

We thought that such a strategy would make it interesting to watch any, even the most boring tennis match. Of course, mathematically we will still be in the red, but sometimes we can seriously increase our initial bet.

So, choose a match to watch. Anyone can, in principle, the main thing is that the odds for the server to win be at least 1.1, otherwise such “fuss on the spot” is tiring and there is no sense in it. We look through the first two games and choose our favorite, after which we bet on his win on our serve in the game. As a rule, such a bet wins (in about 80% of cases), we take the entire amount of the winnings and bet again on the victory of the favorite on his serve, etc.

The maximum number of such "steps" can be determined by the size of the winnings (for example, refuse to continue if the starting bet has doubled), or you can initially set a specific number of steps.

For example, take Ferrer, who wins about 80% of games on his serve. The coefficient for his victory is usually given around 1.2. Let's say we decide to play 3 steps on his serves. The probability that he will "master" such a series is approximately 51%.

• Initial bet - 10 units, odds - 1.2, winnings - 12;
• Second bet - 12 with the same odds, winning - 14.4;
• The third bet is 14.4, if we win we get 17.28.

If we see that David is confident enough to take his serves, then we can take the fourth step, etc.

I think there is no particular need to explain that we will not be able to earn money in the long run using such a strategy. This can be seen even from the fact that we get a “final coefficient” of overclocking 1.73, and for a breakeven game we would need about 1.96 (based on a 51% probability).

Theoretically, you can slightly reduce the minus by playing only on “served” and only on “fast” surfaces (hard and grass), but you still won’t be able to get a plus. It is for this reason that we would advise using this strategy only to get additional emotions, as entertainment.

Consider a strategy that is popular among bettors who are knowledgeable in tennis, which is called the “Tennis Game Betting Strategy”.

What is its popularity: you can bet in the pre-line before the match and during the game in Live. At correct rate, the bettor can increase his gaming wallet several times in one match.

What will we bet on with the Strategy of betting in tennis on games:

1. Bet on winning the game. Here we bet either on the victory of the tennis player who serves or on the break - winning on the opponent's serve. In both cases, bets are made in Live, on odds of different levels. They will be an order of magnitude higher for a break, and lower for a tennis player to win his serve. Here you have to watch and study the game in the online broadcast, without a video from the ongoing match, bets on these outcomes cannot be made categorically!
2. Bet on various game totals. This type of bet can offer the bettor more interesting and varied options in terms of odds per game. Here, the factor of the 1st serve is important, the % of winning the 2nd serve, the % of breaks won by the receiving tennis player, the opponent's serve. You can bet on the total in the line before the match, as well as during the match with rapidly changing odds, the offices offer total total games for the match and total games for sets.
3. Bet on odds in games. The bettor bets, as well as on the total before the match and during the match, it is also offered to bet on the handicap in the game by game and during the set. In the line before the match, the general total and the 1st-2nd sets are offered. The value of the numbers depends on the level of tennis players and the tournament.

What we advise when betting with the Strategy of betting in tennis on games

If the bettor makes bets on the line before the start of the match, then it is better to use the Martingale, Percentage of the Bank, Fixed Profit or Flat strategies. With the help of these strategies, the player will minimize possible financial losses and will not drain his game bank.

In Live, it is better to use Dogon. This strategy will allow you to cover your financial losses in case of unsuccessful bets and will allow you to win money. But it is important to remember that the bettor's game bank must have a significant amount for Dogon's tennis bets.

Features of tennis matches also depend on who the participants in the matches are, men or women. Often, bookmakers rarely make mistakes when placing bets on games when major tennis tournaments are played, there are few sensations, but minor tournaments, for lovers of valley betting, are just right. Here you can easily catch breaks, especially in women's tennis, and you can also catch an office in Live during the “jumps” in coefficients.

Conclusion

Betting on games can lead to both quick enrichment and a quick “drain” of the bank, betting large amounts is not recommended, but check small funds a break or a large catch-up ratio is quite real. Caution, care, personal experience and intuition - that's what will help in betting on tennis matches.

In the line of the bookmaker, among the offers for tennis, a group of bets on games stands out. Before the match, there is usually an opportunity to bet:

• for total games in a match and in sets;
• on the individual total of games won by each of the athletes;
• to win with a handicap by games in the match and by sets.

In live, offers are added for the winner of the game, the score in the game, the winner in the current and next draw, the number of draws in the game.

Tennis has developed a number of strategies related to betting on games.

• . There are two options here: for the server and for the receiving player (break).
• Bets on different kinds totals: number of games per match and set, rallies per game.
• . For example, will the score be 40:40.
• Express bet strategy for game favorite.
• Anti-Schukin game system. If Shchukin's strategy is based on the break of the receiving player, then this game system is based on the fact that there will be no breaks in the first two games - each player takes his serve. Odds - 1.1-1.3. The selection of matches is based on the analysis of statistics and individual features rival games. The author claims that, despite the low odds, it is possible to get a profit due to the high permeability of bets.
• The Dominant Game Theory. It's rather tactics, recommendations on the actions of the bettor in various scenarios of a tennis match. The essence of one of them is as follows: if a player who loses one break in a set to an opponent equalizes the position at the end of the game by making a return break, then with a high degree of probability the set remains behind him. When following this rule, it is also necessary to take into account the volitional qualities of athletes, their game in case of an unsuccessful development of events.

Let's take a closer look at some of these strategies.

Express bet strategy for game favorite

The game system is based on the important role of the serve in tennis. The odds for winning the game of the serving favorite are small. Combining the two outcomes in an accumulator, we will get an acceptable odds.

Peculiarities:

• The bookmaker’s quotes depend on the balance of forces (the favorite is the outsider), the type of coverage, the strength of the serve (in men’s tennis, the value of one’s serve is higher).
• The markets for the winner of the game "live" for a short time, and "putting down" two bets in parallel matches requires the ability to quickly assess the situation and make the right decision.
• It is important to choose a bookmaker with a rich list in live tennis matches. The bookmaker must provide the opportunity to bet during the game on the outcomes of interest to us.

Example. We made a bet for 1000 rubles on an express train of two events:

In the first game, Bublik won the eighth game 5:3 and lost in the next - 6:3. The second match in the screenshot is women's tennis, where a break-point took place - 4:5, and in the 10th game the score was equal - 5:5. The bet with odds 1.69 (1.33 x 1.27) passed. Net profit:

1000 x 1.69 - 1000 = 1690 - 1000 = 690 rubles.

• The odds for the favorite are very low, often not exceeding 1.2. In this case, the total odds will also be low - about 1.4.
• When the opponents are comparable in strength (as in the screenshot), then the coefficient deserves attention, but the probability of passing the accumulator is also reduced.

Betting strategy for the server to win the game

Alternative names: game catch-up strategy, "game theory".

Based on the advantage of its serve, like the previous system of play. The problem of low odds for a serving tennis player is solved here by selecting games where there is a favorite. The option with a clear favorite, when one of the athletes must win "for a clear advantage" is not considered.

The idea behind the strategy is to bet on the serving underdog. It is assumed that the underdog serves well and has a good chance of successfully countering the opponent in games on his serve. The authors of the strategy assure that it is extremely rare for tennis players to lose more than five of their innings in a row. We need to be critical of such statements.

The necessary conditions:

Financial strategy - catch up. In case of loss, we skip the game of the favorite and bet on the next game on the underdog. The size of the next bet is determined by the formula:

V \u003d (D + P) / (K - 1)

D - predetermined income, P - loss at the time of the bet, K - coefficient. The size of the bet allows you to win back the loss and make a profit.

The strategy is worthy of attention with a large bank and high-quality analysis when selecting games for the strategy.

conclusions

Among tennis strategies for games, there are quite interesting ones. Most of them are live strategies where catch-up is actively used. Not recommended for beginners and bettors who do not have the knowledge and experience of betting in tennis.

Betting on tennis games is based on an assessment of a tennis player's ability to take his serve or break.

Games in bets

Games in tennis are the segments of the game into which a set is broken. Tennis players fight in a game until someone wins six games (or seven if the score is 5:5). When the score is 6:6, a tie-break is played. Tennis players alternate games on their serve and receive, and a game can be won as a result of four rallies won, or an advantage of two rallies won if the game reaches the score "exactly".

The number of games played in tennis depends on the ability of the players to hold their serve. In men's tennis, this is easier to do, since the power of serving in men is much higher than in women. In men's tennis, even an outsider, whose winning odds can reach up to 7.0-10.0, is able to take his serve in individual games.

Betting on games in tennis is worth playing catch-up. For example, you bet on an outsider to win in the first game on his serve, and he loses - in this case, you need to double the bet and again bet on his victory in the next game on him. As soon as it turns out to win, a new chain begins.

It is necessary to limit the number of steps in the catch-up, so as not to burn out if the selected player concedes the set 0:6. It is important to choose tennis players who are able to take their serve against anyone.

In women's tennis, it is wiser to use reverse principle – bet on a tennis player. In women, the serve is not so strong, and it is often easier for a tennis player to take a game on someone else's serve than to win her own. In women's tennis, matches happen when tennis players exchange breaks, in which case you can make good money on one game.

When playing catch-up in live, it is important to choose the right one. The game betting strategy implies fast betting, as the intervals between games are short. It is possible to bet during the serve of another tennis player, if he does not close the line for games for the duration of the draw.

When choosing a tennis player, focus on the ability to take at least 2-3 games on your serve in a game. At the same time, he must be an outsider in the game so that the odds for him to win his own serve are in the region of 1.6-2.0. At low quotes, this strategy does not work, but you should not chase high odds, a frank outsider can lose 0:6.

In women's tennis, you need to focus on the opponent of the selected tennis player. It makes sense to play against unstable tennis players who often make double faults and do not have a strong serve.

The break odds are much higher than the quotes for winning your serve, so you can take more steps when catching up, and sometimes even one break in the game is enough to make a profit.

Conclusion

The game betting strategy is based on catch-up, it cannot be classified as a serious tool for making money in bookmakers. It all depends on the intuition of the bettor and right choice tennis players and matches.