Social forecasting. Forecast extrapolation method. Modeling methods are the most complex forecasting method, consisting of different approaches to forecasting complex systems, processes and phenomena

Methods of social forecasting.

Types of social forecasts

Social Forecasting Methods

Concept and types of social forecasting

Topic 2. Sociological monitoring of security

Social Forecasting- this is a special study on the likely development prospects social object. Moreover, the object can be social phenomenon, process, and social layer, and the social state of the individual.

The purpose of social forecasting is the preparation of scientifically based proposals on the directions in which the development of a social object is desirable. In the course of scientific forecasting, two main tasks are solved:

The goal of the probable development of the object is determined and motivated;

The means and ways to achieve this goal are determined.

Types of social forecasting: socio-economic, legal, socio-political, socio-cultural, sociological, etc.

Social Forecasting Features:

1. orienting involves optimizing the choice of socially significant goals and means of achieving them

2. normative means identifying the most important trends in social development,

3. precautionary involves identifying and describing possible negative consequences in probable development trends.

General scientific: analysis, synthesis, extrapolation, extension of conclusions regarding one part of a phenomenon to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole for the future, interpolation - restoration of the value of a function at an intermediate point based on its known values ​​at neighboring points, induction, deduction, analogy, hypothesis, experimentation and modeling - transfer of research activities to another object, acting as a substitute for the object being studied.

Interscientific, focused on collective opinion, the opinion of the majority of experts :

1. brainstorming method represents a collective expert assessment of a predicted event. It involves a joint discussion of the problem by specialists from different research areas, scientific schools and is focused on bringing together expert positions.

2. Delphi method distinguished by the anonymity of the work of experts and the written form of assessments.

To private scientific methods social forecasting usually includes expert surveys, testing, etc.

I. Forecasts differ based on the target criterion:

1. Search forecast, the content of which is to determine the possible states of the forecast object in the future. This forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if current trends continue?

2. Normative forecast, the content of which is to determine the ways and conditions for achieving possible states (accepted as given) of the forecast object in the future. This forecast answers the question: what ways to achieve the desired result?

3. Comprehensive forecast, containing elements of search and normative forecasts.

II. By lead time The following types of forecasts are distinguished:

Operational forecast with a lead time of up to 1 month;

Short-term forecast with a lead period from 1 month to 1 year;

Medium-term forecast with a lead period from 1 year to 5 years;

Long-term forecast with a lead period from 5 years to 15 years;

Long-term forecast with a lead period of more than 15 years.

III. By scale of forecasting highlight:

World forecasts;

State forecasts;

Structural (intersectoral and interregional) forecasts;

Forecasts for the development of individual complexes of industry, economy, culture;

Industry forecasts;

Regional forecasts;

IV. By object of study differ:

-natural history forecasts(meteorological, hydrological, geological, biological, cosmological

-scientific and technical forecasts, which cover the prospects for the development of scientific and technological progress;

-social forecasts, which cover various spheres of human activity and relationships between them.

Introduction...2

Traditional methods of social forecasting... 2

Sociosynergetics – unconventional method forecasting... 5

21st century: scenario for the evolution of Western civilization... 5

In the study of the future, an extensive and diverse arsenal of scientific methods, special techniques, logical and technical means of cognition is used. Austrian futurist Erich Young lists about 200 of them, and his list is not exhaustive. However, the main methods of social forecasting come down to the following five (the rest are their various combinations and variations): 1) extrapolation; 2) historical analogy; 3) computer modeling; 4) future scenarios; 5) expert assessments. Each of these methods of anticipating the future has its own advantages and disadvantages. The accuracy of extrapolation, for example, decreases sharply as we move into the future, which cannot in any way be a simple quantitative continuation of the present. Very limited applicability to predicting the future historical analogy, for the future of humanity cannot in its main features be reduced to a repetition of the past. This was well understood by Hegel, who wittily wrote: “To the rulers, government people and peoples are solemnly advised to draw lessons from the experience of history.

But experience and history teach that peoples and governments have never learned anything from history or acted on the teachings that could be drawn from it. In every era there are such special circumstances, each era is such an individual state that in this era it is necessary and possible to make only such decisions that follow from this very state.”

The most reliable method of social forecasting remains expert review perspectives of a real historical process, provided that it is based on correct theoretical ideas about it, uses the results obtained using other methods, and gives these results the correct interpretation.

Anticipating the future inevitably influences the consciousness and behavior of people in the present in one way or another. Depending on the description of the future contained in social forecasts, they encourage a person to either actively strive for it, or to counteract its onset, or to passively expect it. Therefore, any social forecast combines both scientific and educational content and certain ideological purpose.

And in this fusion of two functions - cognitive and ideological - both the first and the second can prevail. Based on the content and purpose of various forecasts, four main types (types) can be distinguished: search; regulatory; analytical; forecasts and warnings.

Search predictions(sometimes called "exploratory" or "realistic") are compiled directly in order to identify what the future might be, starting from realistic assessments of existing given time development trends in various fields social activities.

Regulatory forecasts, focused on achieving certain goals in the future, contain various practical recommendations for the implementation of relevant development plans and programs.

Analytical forecasts, As a rule, they are done in order to determine, for scientific purposes, the cognitive value of various methods and means of studying the future.

Forecasts and warnings are compiled to directly influence the consciousness and behavior of people in order to force them to prevent the expected future.

Of course, the differences between these main types of forecasts are relative; the same specific social forecast may combine characteristics of several types.

It must be said that some doctrinaires and conservative-minded social scientists in our country until relatively recently rejected futurology, calling it “bourgeois pseudoscience,” just as they previously rejected genetics and cybernetics under this pretext. However, refuting the claims of Western futurologists to a monopoly right to explore the future, there is no need at all to deny social forecasting the right to exist as a special branch of scientific knowledge, declaring it the prerogative of each science separately.

IN modern era Along with further specialization in science, there is a growing desire to integrate knowledge both “from below” (biophysics, geochemistry, etc.) and “from above” (cybernetics, ecology, etc.). Among such integrating branches of knowledge is social forecasting, which obviously cannot be separated into separate departments of science. For there can be no justified social forecasts without taking into account the prospects for economic, environmental, demographic development, scientific and technological progress and the possible evolution of culture and international relations.

Anticipating the future is an interdisciplinary comprehensive study of the prospects of humanity, which can only be fruitful in the process of integrating humanitarian, natural science and technical knowledge.1

The conclusion about the similarity of the individual actions of an economic space researcher with the main sequence of the research procedure is made by comparing the steps to study the economic space with a set of elements that characterize scientific, technical, socio-economic and spiritual progress in the modern era.

Traditional methods of social forecasting, based on classical rationality, have a number of disadvantages: one-dimensionality, linearity, lack of alternatives, etc. Sociosynergetics differs from classical methodology in that it is based on a fundamentally different ideological approach - the philosophy of instability. This allows when building models historical processes take into account such important features real systems, such as stochasticity, uncertainty, nonlinearity, polyvariance.

While noting the advantages of synergetic modeling of evolutionary processes, one should simultaneously emphasize the considerable difficulties associated with the practical use of these methods. The main one is extremely high complexity social systems, the presence of a large number of factors that determine their dynamics. And the connections between factors themselves are complex and multi-stage. To this should be added the lack of development of methods for analyzing bifurcation phases and evolutionary catastrophes. These circumstances determined the relatively slow progress in the development of synergetic methods of social forecasting, or futurosynergetics.

Let's consider how sociosynergetics is capable of carrying out social forecasting. As an example, let us construct a model of Western civilization.

Since the systemic crisis has placed the Western community on the threshold of bifurcation, its further evolution is necessarily multivariate in nature. Therefore, modeling the process of evolution of Western civilization beyond the bifurcation threshold should begin with constructing a spectrum of evolutionary scenarios. A summary of these scenarios, based on a summary of the analysis performed above, is presented in Table. 1. It identifies the main factors that may play a role in moving to the appropriate scenario.

Table 1

Scenarios for the evolution of the West

Modern Western civilization is not yet able to maintain control over the negative trends in global development. By maintaining control over the gross world product with the help of transnational corporations, the West is able to allocate part of its resources to suppress certain dangerous instabilities that arise in various regions. By achieving, on this basis, equal responsibility among all modern communities, Western civilization can provide a solution global problems. This point of view corresponds to scenario #1.

The ideology underlying development according to scenario No. 2 is the establishment of total Western control over the entire world community, the strategy of the “golden billion” and modernism. The modernization paradigm has been thoroughly studied by A. Panarin. The most likely way to achieve this goal is to create a planetary information highway. The "Universal Information Market" will eventually become the central department store of the whole world. In this wonderful new world, wealth and technological advances will go to the few, and poverty will remain the lot of the many. The possible appearance of this new planetary system is convincingly described in Zinoviev’s fantastic story “The Global Mankind”. A totalitarian information society, he writes, will be a world “without hope and despair, without illusions and without insights, without seduction and without disappointment,” and therefore ultimately doomed to destruction, as happened with the Roman Empire.

It is often argued that in order to avoid the impending environmental catastrophe, it is necessary either to reduce the Earth’s population by 10 times, or to reduce the consumption of natural resources per inhabitant of the planet by the same amount. Some authoritative researchers believe that this is not enough and the anthropogenic pressure on the environment should be reduced by several hundred times. It is not difficult to realize that these proposals (see scenario No. 3) are tantamount to calls to return to medieval image life. You can imagine how this will work in practice if you remember character traits the Middle Ages, so convincingly described by Berdyaev, and compare them with the realities of our modern life. These realities are sad: financial collapse, powerlessness of the Center and the collapse of the country, impoverishment of the population, curtailment of science and education, rampant obscurantism, banditry in cities and on the roads, etc.

Scenarios No. 2 and No. 3 are united by a focus on global totalitarianism with the difference that in the first case we're talking about about relying on high tech, and the second refers to the rejection of scientific and technological progress. Both projects are undoubtedly utopias. Unfortunately, this does not exclude possible attempts to implement them. An alternative to both scenarios could be a split in the world community, the manifestations of which can be very different. Huntington's idea of ​​a conflict of civilizations has become widely known. The basis for this concept is a group of contradictions between the global technosphere and the environment, between the West and the rest of humanity, between the types of consciousness inherent in different civilizations

Refined "eco-racism". defended by supporters of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2, can lead to an overextension of the forces of the Western community, seeking to put its own interests above the interests of the rest of humanity, and as a result - to the loss of its own unity. “The deprived world,” Panarin writes about the results of such a policy, “will look for charismatic leaders and prophets who expose new Rome- prosperous West. On this path, a single planetary consciousness is unlikely to await us.” In this case it will become real development according to scenario No. 4 with the collapse of the world into a large number of centers of power, built on different principles and in acute conflict relations with each other

The fifth scenario - a global environmental disaster - does not require special comments, since there are especially many publications devoted to it. Only in 1997, these problems were considered at three international forums, held at the very high level. Until an effective strategy for overcoming the environmental crisis is developed and implemented, the danger of global collapse remains real. It is important to note that, in accordance with the theory of self-organizing systems, this process can develop in an aggravated mode, when it will be too late to take any preventive measures

The last, sixth scenario is conventionally called the transition to the noosphere. This is also a complex, multifaceted process that affects almost all aspects of human existence - ideological, scientific, technological, cultural, educational, ethical, socio-political, religious, etc. The theory of noospherogenesis is not yet sufficiently developed, but it can be noted that the three pillars of this process are the achievements of fundamental science, high technology and deep reform of the education system. The transition to the noosphere is not an easy task for Western civilization, since the principles of noosphere sharply diverge from its typical philosophy of consumerism and individualism. In addition, the transition to the noosphere can only take place if it is of a global, universal nature.

From the point of view of synergetic prognosis, all the considered scenarios are of the same order, but not equally probable. IN real life These scenarios form a coherent unity; the evolutionary process can develop based on their combination.

1. Nazaretyan A.P. Synergetics in humanitarian knowledge: preliminary results // Social sciences and modernity. 1997. No. 2.

2. Leskov L.V. Synergetic modeling of the future // Theory of foresight and the future. M., 1997

3. Valtukh K.K. Impossibility theorems // Social sciences and modernity. 1994. No. 1.

4. Moiseev N.N. Does Russia have a future? M., 1997

5. Panarin A.S. Political science. M., 1997

6. Fukuyama F. End of story? // Questions of philosophy. 1991. No. 1.

METHODS OF SOCIAL FORECASTING - based on three ways of obtaining information about the future. Firstly, this is an extrapolation into the future of observed trends, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are quite well known (assuming that for a certain future these trends will continue without significant changes). Secondly, it is a possible or desirable future state of a particular phenomenon (primarily expert assessment). Thirdly, these are predictable phenomena (understanding in this case under the model is any conditional, simplified for the convenience of research, schematic representation of the object of the forecast - an ordered set of indicators, a scenario of a possible or desirable development of events, etc. up to strictly formalized mathematical ones. models-equations). All three methods are distinguished conditionally, because they form an organic. unity: any extrapolation, logical. or statistical, is, in fact, a predictive assessment and a type of predictive model. Any forecast assessment is, first of all, an extrapolation in one or another model representation; any forecast includes extrapolation and assessment. All forecasting methods (and more than one hundred and fifty have been identified theoretically or potentially possible in social forecasting alone) are essentially different. combinations of elements of the above methods of obtaining information about the future. Several methods are general scientific, for example, by analogy (logical extrapolation), predictive estimates of deductive or inductive, analytical. or synthetic character, etc. Practically in the arsenal of M.S.P. includes all research methods - study of documentary sources and literature, included and not included, surveys of the population and experts, staged and post-facto experiments, schematic modeling. and mathematical. Many methods are inter- or interscientific, used in a number of scientific fields. disciplines, for example, methods of regression or factor analysis, face-to-face and part-time collective and individual surveys of experts, simple and formalized forecast scenarios, etc. Some methods are private scientific, that is, they relate only to certain people. one scientific discipline - eg. population surveys in sociology, projective surveys in psychology, etc. According to the accepted classification of forecasting methods (covering methods of scientific, technical and socio-economic forecasting, without taking into account the specifics of agro-, hydrometeorological and a number of other natural science forecasts), all Methods according to the degree of formalization are divided into intuitive (expert) and formalized (factographic). The latter are used only in cases where the value of the forecast lead period fits within the framework of the evolutionary cycle of the predicted object, i.e. when no significant qualities or changes in its development are expected. In all other cases, including qualities, changes or such complexity of the object, in which it is almost impossible to take into account the influence of many factors, one has to rely on the intuition of experts. Expert assessment is usually limited to the simplest cases of forecasting. Intuitive M.s.p. are divided into groups of individual and collective expert assessments. The first include methods, analytical. memos, writing a forecast scenario, etc. The second includes methods of questioning, discussion by a commission, brainstorming (collective generation of ideas), etc. Formalized M.S.P. are divided into groups of extrapolation, system-structural, association methods and advanced information methods. The first are methods least squares, exponential smoothing, probabilistic modeling and adaptive smoothing. The second includes functional-hierarchical methods. modeling, morphological analysis, network modeling, structural analogy, matrix method. To the third - methods simulation modeling and historical-rico-logical. analysis. The fourth includes methods for analyzing publication flows, assessing the significance of discoveries, inventions, innovations, and analyzing patent or similar information. There are other varieties of methods from all four groups. In addition, many methods are essentially variations of those listed or their further specification. One or more M.s.p. form the basis of the forecast methodology, which boils down to pre-forecast orientation (development of a research program), construction of the initial (basic) model, forecast background model, search and normative forecast models, their verification (reliability check), development of recommendations to improve efficiency social management processes based on a comparison of predictive search data and standards (see Forecasting). The task of further improving the M.S.P. is the essence of the development of forecasting theory (hedgehog. Prognosis). Lit.: Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Main stages of forecast development. (Toward a comprehensive methodology for social forecasting)//Sociological. research 1982, no. 1; see also lit. to Art. Forecasting, Forecasting. I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada.

Russian sociological encyclopedia. - M.: NORM-INFRA-M. G.V. Osipov. 1999.

See what “METHODS OF SOCIAL FORECASTING” are in other dictionaries:

METHODS OF SOCIAL FORECASTING- – the unity of three interrelated ways of obtaining information about the future. Firstly, this is an extrapolation into the future of observed trends, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are quite well known. Secondly, this is an assessment... ... encyclopedic Dictionary in psychology and pedagogy

Methods for studying migration- a set of special techniques for studying the migration process. The basis of statistical methods for studying migration is the direct registration of each individual case of movement both at the place of departure of migrants and at their place... ... Migration: glossary of basic terms

methods- methods: Methods for indirectly measuring the humidity of gases, based on the dependence of their optical properties on humidity. Source: RMG 75 2004: State system ensuring uniformity of measurements. Measured... Dictionary-reference book of terms of normative and technical documentation

METHODS OF POLITICAL SCIENCE- (gr. methodos path of research) means of analysis, methods of verification and evaluation political theory. The main types of methods and levels of political research methodology developed gradually during historical development political thought... ... Political science: dictionary-reference book

In a broad sense, the theory and practice of forecasting, in a narrow sense, the science of the laws and methods of developing forecasts. Development of prognostic research first in natural sciences(primarily in the agricultural guide of meteorology), and then in societies. sciences... ... Russian Sociological Encyclopedia

Shlapentokh, Vladimir Emmanuilovich- Vladimir Shlapentokh, 2009 ... Wikipedia

Vladimir Shlapentokh

Vladimir Emmanuilovich Shlapentokh- Shlapentokh, Vladimir Khaimovich (English Vladimir Shlapentokh, born in 1926, Kyiv) famous Soviet, since 1979 American sociologist. Considered (by whom?) one of the founders of sociology in the USSR. Contents 1 Biography 2 Works 2.1 ... Wikipedia

Shlapentoh, Vladimir- Khaimovich (English: Vladimir Shlapentokh, born in 1926, Kyiv) is a famous Soviet, since 1979 American sociologist. Considered (by whom?) one of the founders of sociology in the USSR. Contents 1 Biography 2 Works 2.1 ... Wikipedia

Shlapentoh- Shlapentokh, Vladimir Emmanuilovich Vladimir Shlapentokh, 2009 Vladimir Shlapentokh (English: Vladimir Shlapentokh, born October 19, 1926, Kyiv) is a famous Soviet, since 1979 American sociologist. Considered one of the main... Wikipedia

Books

• Social forecasting and design: Textbook, Lenkov R.V.. The textbook reveals the prerequisites for the formation of socioforecasting research in Russia against the backdrop of the evolutionary processes of social forecasting in the 20th century. The essential characteristics are considered...

INTRODUCTION

When developing forecasts, specialists often encounter difficulties that are associated with insufficient definition of the terminology of this relatively new area of ​​scientific research.

They strive to foresee, predict, anticipate, predict, predict, etc., the future. But the future can also be planned, programmed, designed. In relation to the future, you can set goals and make decisions. Sometimes some of these concepts are used as synonyms, sometimes each of them has a different meaning. This situation greatly complicates the development of prognostics and gives rise to fruitless discussions on terminology.

In 1975, the Committee of Scientific and Technical Terminology of the USSR Academy of Sciences prepared a draft terminology for the general concepts of forecasting, as well as the object and apparatus of forecasting. The project was sent out for wide discussion in organizations involved in prognostics problems, finalized taking into account comments and published in 1978 in the 92nd edition of collections of terms recommended for use in scientific and technical literature, information, educational process, standards and documentation. In this section, an attempt is made to combine into a system some of the terms (some of them go beyond the scope of the specified dictionary) that denote the initial concepts of prognostics and without which it is difficult to perceive the subsequent presentation (the dictionary is given in the Appendix).

Foresight and forecasting. It seems necessary to introduce a general concept that unites all types of obtaining information about the future - foresight, which is divided into scientific and non-scientific (intuitive, everyday, religious, etc.). Scientific foresight is based on knowledge of the laws of development of nature, society, and thinking; intuitive - on a person’s premonitions, everyday - on the so-called everyday experience, analogies, signs, etc. associated with it; religious - based on belief in supernatural forces that predetermine the future. There are also a lot of superstitions about this.

Sometimes the concept of foresight refers to information not only about the future, but also about the present, and even about the past. This happens when still unknown, unknown phenomena of the past and present are approached with the aim of obtaining scientific knowledge about them as if they belonged to the future. Examples include assessments of mineral deposits (presentist foresight), mental reconstruction of ancient monuments using the tools of scientific foresight (reconstructive foresight), assessment of retrospect from the present to the past or from the less distant to more distant past (reverse foresight), assessment of retrospect from the past to the present or from the more distant to the less distant past, in particular for testing methods of foresight (imitation foresight).

Foresight affects two interconnected sets of forms of its concretization: one related to the category of foresight itself - predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) and associated with it, related to the category of management - pre-indicative (prescriptive, or prescriptive). Prediction implies a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to problems of the future. Prediction is associated with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activities of the individual and society. Prediction takes the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition - the subconscious. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of ​​the simplest advanced reflection as a property of any organism. Prediction (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of ​​complex advanced reflection, which is a property of the highest form of motion of matter - thinking. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) should mean with this approach a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon.

Prediction appears in the forms of goal setting, planning, programming, design, and current management decisions. Goal setting is the establishment of an ideally expected result of an activity. Planning is a projection into the future of human activity to achieve a predetermined goal with certain means, transforming information about the future into directives for targeted activities. Programming in this series of concepts means the establishment of basic provisions, which are then deployed in planning, or a sequence of specific activities for the implementation of plans. Design is the creation of specific images of the future, specific details of developed programs. Management as a whole, as it were, integrates the four listed concepts, since each of them is based on the same element - a decision. But management decisions are not necessarily planned, programmatic, or project-based in nature. Many of them (the so-called organizational ones, as well as management ones themselves) are, as it were, the last stage in the specification of management.

These terms can also be defined as the processes of developing forecasts, goals, plans, programs, projects, and organizational decisions. From this point of view, a forecast is defined as a probabilistic scientifically based judgment about the prospects, possible states of a particular phenomenon in the future and (or) about alternative ways and timing of their implementation. Goal is a decision regarding the expected result of the activity undertaken. A plan is a decision regarding a system of activities that provides for the order, sequence, timing and means of their implementation. A program is a decision regarding a set of activities necessary for the implementation of scientific, technical, social, socio-economic and other problems or some of their aspects. The program can be a pre-plan decision, as well as specify a certain aspect of the plan. Project - a decision regarding a specific event, structure, etc., necessary for the implementation of one or another aspect of the program. Finally, the actual decision in this series of concepts is an ideally proposed action to achieve the goal.

Religious foresight has its own forms of concretization. Thus, “prediction” takes the form of “revelation,” divination (prophecy), fortune telling, and “prediction” takes the form of “predestination,” sorcery, spells, requests for prayer, etc. But all this (as well as forms of concretization of intuitive and everyday foresight ) is a special topic.

It is important to emphasize that prediction and pre-instruction are closely related. Without taking this connection into account, it is impossible to understand the essence of forecasting and its actual relationship with management. The volitional principle may predominate in the pre-instruction, and then the corresponding goals, plans, programs, projects, decisions in general turn out to be voluntaristic, subjectivist, arbitrary (with an increased risk of suboptimality and failure). In this regard, it is desirable for them to have an objective, research element, so that they are scientifically based, with an increased level of expected effectiveness of decisions made.

The most important methods of scientific substantiation of predictions - description (analysis), explanation (diagnosis) and prediction (forecast) - constitute the three main functions of each scientific discipline. The forecast is not just a tool for such justification. However, its practical significance comes down precisely to the possibility of increasing the efficiency of decisions made with its help. Only because of this, forecasting has taken on unprecedented proportions in recent decades and has begun to play an important role in management processes.

Forecasting is not about trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is essential). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of future phenomena, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chance, that a probabilistic approach is needed to future phenomena, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach can forecasting be effectively used to select the most likely or most desirable, optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.

Forecasts must precede plans, contain an assessment of the progress and consequences of the implementation (or non-fulfillment) of plans, and cover everything that cannot be planned or decided. They can cover, in principle, any period of time. A forecast and a plan differ in the way they handle information about the future. A probabilistic description of what is possible or desirable is a forecast. A directive decision regarding measures to achieve the possible and desirable is a plan. The forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But for a plan to be effective and optimal, it must be preceded by a forecast, if possible continuous, allowing scientific substantiation of this and subsequent plans.

TYPOLOGY OF FORECASTS

Typology of forecasts can be built according to various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, subjects, problems, nature, lead period, methods, organization of forecasting, etc. The fundamental criterion is the problem-target criterion: why is the forecast being developed? Accordingly, two types of forecasts are distinguished: search (they were previously called research, prospecting, trend, genetic, etc.) and normative (they were called program, target).

Search forecast- determination of possible states of the phenomenon in the future. This refers to the conditional continuation into the future of the development trends of the phenomenon being studied in the past and present, abstracting from possible solutions, actions based on which can radically change trends, causing in some cases self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast. This forecast answers the question: What is most likely to happen if current trends continue?

Regulatory forecast- determination of ways and deadlines for achieving possible states of the phenomenon taken as a goal. This refers to predicting the achievement of desired states based on predetermined norms, ideals, incentives, and goals. This forecast answers the question: what ways to achieve what you want?

A search forecast is built on a certain scale (field, spectrum) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted phenomenon is then established. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to observed trends. Normative forecasting is in some respects very similar to normative planning, program or design development. But the latter imply the directive establishment of measures to implement certain norms, while the first is a stochastic (probabilistic) description of possible, alternative ways to achieve these norms.

Regulatory forecasting not only does not exclude regulatory developments in the field of management, but is also their prerequisite and helps to develop recommendations for increasing the level of objectivity and, consequently, the effectiveness of decisions. This circumstance prompted us to identify the specifics of forecasts that serve, respectively, goal setting, planning, programming, design, and the management organization itself. As a result, according to the criterion of correlation with various forms of specification of management, some experts distinguish a number of subtypes of forecasts (search and normative).

Target forecast actual desired states answers the question: what exactly is desirable and why? In this case, the possibilities of a purely evaluative function are constructed on a certain scale (field, spectrum), i.e. preference distribution functions: undesirable - less desirable - more desirable - most desirable - optimal (with a compromise on several criteria). Orientation - assistance in optimizing the goal-setting process.

Planned forecast(plan-forecast) of the progress of implementation (or non-fulfillment) of plans is essentially the development of search and normative forecast information for the selection of the most appropriate planned standards, tasks, directives with the identification of undesirable alternatives that must be eliminated and with a thorough clarification of the direct and remote, indirect consequences of the adopted planned decisions. This forecast answers the question: How and in what direction should planning be directed in order to more effectively achieve the goals?

Program forecast possible ways, measures and conditions for achieving the expected desired state of the predicted phenomenon answers the question: What exactly is needed to achieve what you want? To answer this question, both exploratory and normative forecasting developments are important. The former identify problems that need to be solved in order to implement the program, the latter determine the conditions for implementation. Software forecasting should formulate a hypothesis about possible mutual influences of various factors, indicate hypothetical deadlines and the order of achieving intermediate goals on the way to the main one. This, as it were, completes the selection of possibilities for the development of the research object, begun by planned forecasting.

Project forecast specific images of this or that phenomenon in the future, assuming a number of still missing conditions, answers the question: how (specifically) is this possible, what might it look like? The combination of exploratory and regulatory developments is also important here. Design forecasts (they are also called forecast projects, design forecasts, etc.) are designed to facilitate the selection of optimal options for long-term design, on the basis of which real, current design should then be developed.

Organizational forecast current decisions (in relation to the field of management) to achieve the envisaged desired state of the phenomenon, the set goals answers the question: In what direction should decisions be directed to achieve the goal? A comparison of the results of search and regulatory developments should cover the entire range of organizational activities, thereby increasing the overall level of management.

Social Methods social forecasting: a brief description of. Search social forecasting Methodological failure orientation forecasting in social sciences...

social forecasting information extrapolation

Currently, there are about 220 forecasting methods, but most often no more than 10 are used in practice, among them: factual (extrapolation, interpolation, trend analysis), expert (including surveys, questionnaires), publications (including including patent), quotation-index, scenario, matrix, modeling, analogies, graph construction, etc. .

Now we will take a closer look at the methods that are the most modern and applicable methods of social forecasting, as they are constantly being improved by new ones information technology and more convenient and practical to use: factual method (extrapolation), modeling and examination.

When making forecasts using extrapolation, they usually proceed from statistically emerging trends in changes in certain quantitative characteristics of an object. Estimated functional system and structural characteristics are extrapolated. Extrapolation methods are one of the most common and most developed among the entire set of forecasting methods.

Using these methods, quantitative parameters of large systems, quantitative properties of economic, scientific, production potential, information on the effectiveness of scientific and technological progress, characteristics of the relationship of individual subsystems, blocks, elements in the system of indicators of complex systems, etc. are extrapolated.

But the level of reality of such forecasts and, accordingly, the degree of confidence in them are largely determined by the reasoning of the choice of extrapolation limits and the stability of the correspondence of the “measurers” in relation to the essence of the phenomenon under consideration.

The method is effective for short-term forecasts, if the information in the time series is clearly and stable. A dynamics series (or dynamic series) is a series of chronologically arranged numerical values statistical indicator that determines changes in social phenomena over time.

However, in social forecasting, the ability of extrapolation as a forecasting method is somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the ability to accurately model them. Thus, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After this, the process stabilizes again. If you do not take into account such features of the flow social processes, then the use of the extrapolation method may lead to an error.

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are used more often. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful management decision, especially dangerous for people.

main feature mental model and consists in the fact that it can be subject to any tests, which practically consist in the fact that the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists change. This is a huge advantage of the model. She can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, approaching which may be desirable for the project creators.

In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.

At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplicity. In it, certain properties and characteristics of a real object are coarsened or not taken into account at all as unimportant. If this were not done, working with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. And yet here lies possible mistakes applications of modeling to social design and forecasting.

The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very great. The model allows not only to develop an effective management decision, but also to simulate conflict situations, likely when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement. In fact, any type of business game is a simulation. Analysis and modeling of social systems in Lately are being developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.

The most commonly practiced forecasting method is expert assessment. The examination method is based on accumulated experience, knowledge of the characteristics of the functioning and development of the objects under study.

The examination method began with Trill's book The Science of Management (1911). In Russia, the science of examination began to develop in 1950-1960.

The method is used when there is uncertainty. Expertise is an assumption: what needs to be done in order for “this and that” to happen; or “what will happen if...”.

Expertise is the final judgment of an expert (or a group of experts, the population) about the dynamics of the indicators of the analyzed object or about alternative options their possible development in the future, which is: objective, scientifically substantiated, probabilistic in nature, adjusted within the forecast period as it becomes available new information, verifiable after the end of the forecast period, must be clear, clear, not allow unexpected interpretations, strictly comply with the forecast task, be evidence-based and reproducible.

The main goals of the examination are: increasing the validity of decisions made based on expert opinions; control of compliance and/or establishment of correspondence between the characteristics of the object of examination and the requirements stipulated by regulatory, legal and legislative documents of various levels.

Expert forecasting methods are the most in demand; they work well for long periods and are fundamental for long-term forecasting. Let's consider popular examination methods:

The Delphi method is further development questionnaire survey methods and consists of several rounds of sequential anonymous questioning of experts with feedback. Feedback is provided by the fact that before each subsequent round of the survey, experts are informed of the generalized results of the previous round. The number of rounds is determined either by the required level of accuracy or by the established level of detail of the problem. The Delphi procedure uses only numbers.

The Delphi method is an iterative procedure that allows each expert's opinion to be critiqued by all the others without forcing them to actually come face to face.

The Delphi method (other names: “Delphic Method”, “Delphic Oracle Method”) appeared in the 1950-1960s in the USA to study military-strategic and military-technical problems. Developed by the RAND Corporation, authors: O. Helmer, T. Gordon, N. Dalkey.

The idea of ​​the method is to create a mechanism to ensure that the views of individuals remain anonymous and thereby minimize the influence of eloquent and persuasive individuals on the behavior of the group as a whole. All interactions between group members are controlled by a coordinator or leader who directs all group activities. The coordinator regulates the procedure for analyzing opinions and maintains their anonymity. The group score is calculated by him through some averaging (usually by finding the mean, or median) and communicated to all group members.

The purpose of the Delphi method is to reduce the psychological pressure experienced by some people during personal contact, and therefore eliminate the influence on final result a particularly eloquent or strong personality. The Delphi method, which assumes anonymity of opinions, an interactive procedure for processing results, controlled feedback, numerical estimates and statistical determination of group evaluation, is a valuable research tool for simulation model developers.

The main principles of the Delphi method are:

* anonymity of participants (survey participants only fill out questionnaires and do not interact personally);

* the survey procedure is multi-round;

* after the next round, the information is processed and transmitted to the participants, anonymity is maintained.

When using the Delphi method, greater agreement is achieved between group opinion and the opinions of individual group members than with methods that require personal contacts.

Method brainstorming- is based on the collective generation of ideas expressed spontaneously by participants in various professions and specializations. The brainstorming method appeared in the United States of America in the late 30s, and finally took shape and became known to a wide circle specialists with the publication of A. Osborne’s book “Controlled Imagination” in 1953, in which the principles and procedures were revealed creative thinking. Its essence lies in the fact that when making a collective decision, two main tasks are solved:

* generating new ideas regarding possible options process development;

* analysis and evaluation of proposed ideas.

The brainstorming method is based on the psychological and pedagogical laws of collective activity.

In a brainstorming session, a means of removing so-called barriers is discussion, which helps to release creative energy and, by involving people in interactive communication, involve them in an active search for solutions to the problem at hand.

Brainstorming is, in fact, the most free form of discussion. The main function of this technology is to ensure the process of generating ideas, without their critical analysis and discussion by participants.

Commission method ( round table) - a group of experts meets repeatedly to directly discuss the same issue. In it, the organizer of the examination does not lead the discussion, but only guarantees the intensive work of each expert. The method is efficient, but there is a threat of mutual influence of expert opinions, especially the opinions of recognized authorities in this field of research.

The commission method takes into account the implementation of examination in the form of a free exchange of opinions in order to obtain a general judgment of experts. Face-to-face communication between experts significantly reduces the examination time and simplifies the acquisition of a single agreed opinion. When using the commission method, a discussion program is first developed. A group of experts is selected “voluntarily” - by appointment. Usually it is 10-12 people. To obtain a high-quality forecast, a free and face-to-face exchange of opinions between experts is provided, that is, open communication. Means of ensuring openness can include, in particular, personal statements from experts and, if possible, the rejection of impersonal judgments such as “it is generally believed that” or “they say that”. Of course, openness presupposes not only a willingness to state one’s own position, but also the desire and ability to perceive the position of other experts.

When discussing a problem, experts must follow the principle of psychological safety: the expert’s position and the judgments he expresses should not offend the dignity of other experts or turn the discussion of the problem into a way of asserting one’s own superiority; What is important is the mutual desire and readiness of experts to consider and solve the problem under discussion. The task of correlating and coordinating one’s own point of view with other opinions is not always solved easily. Therefore, experts need to be trained in interpersonal communication, and it is advisable for the organizers of the procedure to take into account the recommendations of psychologists - communication specialists.

The interview method involves a conversation between the organizer of forecasting activities and an expert by asking questions about the future state of the forecasting object and its forecast background. With the “interview” method, there is direct contact between an expert and a specialist using a “question-answer” scheme, during which the forecaster, in accordance with a pre-developed program, poses questions to the expert regarding the prospects for the development of the predicted object.

The advantage of the “interview” method: a favorable environment, an isolated room, the absence of third parties and distractions.

Method of analytical memos - independent work expert to analyze the dynamics of the forecast object and possible paths of its development, it is assumed that the expert forecaster independently performs analytical work assessing the state and paths of development, setting out his considerations in writing. At the same time, to identify the importance of problems and solutions, the method of preference and the method of ranks are used.

The scenario method is a method for constructing a forecast scenario - an analytical forecasting method based on establishing a logical sequence of states of the forecast object and the forecast background in time under various conditions to determine the development goals of this object.

Thus, script writing is the identification of a logical sequence of events in order to show how, starting from an existing situation, the future state of an object can unfold step by step. Description is usually performed in explicit time coordinates. The main meaning of the scenario is to determine the general goal of development of the forecast object, identify background factors and formulate criteria for assessing goals. The scenario uses previously prepared forecasts and materials on the development of the forecast object.

When developing a scenario, since a group of specialists takes part in it, there is always uncertainty associated with the subjectivity of their judgments. The value of the scenario is higher, the lower the degree of uncertainty, i.e., the more degree consistency of expert opinions. Therefore, an important quality of the scenario is the consistency of expert opinions.

The script can be presented in either text or numerical form.

This method is based on certain principles of special processing of scientific and technical information and involves identifying the degree of influence of new technologies and equipment on the pace of development of the scientific and technical process and, as a consequence, social processes. As noted above, there is a close relationship between various areas of forecasting, generated by the determination of all phenomena existing in objective reality. And therefore, changes occurring in nature or in the field of technology can cause serious changes in the social life of society, giving rise to both positive and negative processes in it.